Chance of Key Role for Arab Parties in Israeli Elections, Cooperation is Sensitive
The Arab parties in Israel can play a decisive role after next week's elections in forming a government without Prime Minister Netanyahu. Jewish opposition leaders must then be willing to cooperate with them. Such cooperation has become especially sensitive since the Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023. Nevertheless, the United Arab List is betting on it.
In a small parking lot in the center of the Bedouin city of Lakiya in southern Israel, residents are preparing for a campaign meeting of the United Arab List. Some banners are quickly hung on trees and cars. Party leader Mansour Abbas can arrive at any moment.
The Palestinian residents here have very different concerns than their Jewish compatriots. "We have suffered enormously under this racist government," says Ismail Abli. "Our homes are being demolished and we face violence." Ayoub al-Baz mentions the increased crime within the Arab community. "This government has failed to address this."
'Vote can make a difference'
The banners are now hanging and a few cars have been quickly moved aside. Mansour Abbas arrives ten minutes later than planned. Some of the approximately thirty residents who came to the meeting sit on white plastic chairs. "Your vote for the United Arab List can make the difference," Abbas shouts. He does not use the microphone. "Your vote can bring down this racist government."
Abbas hopes that he will end up in the coalition and can improve the situation for the Palestinian residents in Israel. But most Jewish opposition leaders rule out cooperation with Arab parties.
"All political leaders, both in the coalition and in the opposition, say one thing before the elections and do something completely different afterwards," Abbas tells NOS. "We are citizens with full political rights. We will not accept anyone excluding us."
Arik Rudnitzky of the think tank Israel Democracy Institute explains that Jewish opposition leaders take into account the sensitive and tense situation within the Jewish community after the terror of October 7. "A majority of the population still lives with that trauma."
Nevertheless, the Arab parties can be an important partner for the Jewish opposition leaders to defeat Prime Minister Netanyahu. The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, has 120 seats. For a majority coalition, at least 61 seats are needed. According to recent polls, neither Netanyahu with his coalition nor the opposition bloc achieves that majority.
With the seats of the United Arab List added, that picture can change. The other Arab parties, united in the Joint List, do not want to be part of the new government themselves. But they do not rule out supporting a government from the outside by voting for certain bills.
Rudnitzky thinks that excluding Arab parties is mainly political campaigning. He points to 2021, when Mansour Abbas joined the coalition of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid with his party. Even then there was much resistance to cooperation with an Arab party, but eventually that coalition was formed.
Voter turnout will be crucial
According to Rudnitzky, the turnout among Palestinian residents in Israel plays an important role. "If the United Arab List, for example, wins 7 or 8 seats, it is hard to imagine how Jewish parties exclude the option of considering them as a potential coalition partner."
The big question is whether Abbas will succeed in getting enough people to the polls. The turnout among Palestinian Israelis was relatively low in previous elections. It often fluctuates around 50 percent. Nationwide, turnout in the previous elections was 70 percent.
Nevertheless, the party leader thinks it will be different this time. "We see more enthusiasm and a stronger will among residents to go vote."
The residents who came to the meeting confirm that. "The discriminatory policy of this government has created social awareness," says Ismail Abli. "People now realize that if they remain politically indifferent, Israel could eventually get governments even more extreme than this one."
Ayoub al-Baz thinks the same. He refers to the far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from the current government. "We are more aware of the situation and more motivated to vote and remove them from office."