After Half a Year of Iran War, Calm Returns to the Gulf States, but Certainty Does Not
After months of fighting in the Middle East, a certain calm has returned to the cities on the Persian Gulf. In Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, schools, restaurants, and offices are largely operating as before.
Residents still feel safe there. Yet there is uncertainty about the future. Especially the question of what will happen between America and Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 preoccupies the Gulf region.
In Dubai, you might almost forget that there was recently a war. The terraces and restaurants are full, there are traffic jams on the highways, and new migrant workers are arriving in the city again.
Daily life is also continuing in Doha and Abu Dhabi. The rocket and drone attacks that hit the cities earlier this year have receded into the background.
"With all the planned events, such as the World Investment Forum, Formula 1, and the Doha Forum, it seems that we are 'back to normal' again," says a Dutch diplomatic source in the region to NOS.
Dark clouds
Yet the calm is relative. The war with Iran is not over but seems to have entered an interim phase. President Trump has said he does not intend to attack Iran again before the midterm elections. But what happens afterward is uncertain.
The recent escalation in Saudi Arabia emphasizes how fragile the calm is. In attacks by the Houthis from Yemen on Riyadh airport last week, at least 17 people died and more than 300 were injured. The airport was closed and air traffic severely disrupted.
In the article below, you can read more about the tensions between both parties:
This has reversed the roles. Where Riyadh was previously a refuge for residents of the Gulf states during the war, residents of the Saudi capital are now moving to cities on the Persian Gulf to fly from there.
It is striking how the public warning system in Riyadh remained almost silent for nearly two weeks despite repeated attacks. Only on Monday did residents receive an air raid alarm on their phones again. According to news agency Reuters, the continuous warnings during the first attacks caused irritation, and authorities feared they would disrupt daily life.
Qatar is also preparing for dark economic clouds. Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani warned that everyone, from government to citizens, must be prepared for "the worst conceivable scenarios."
His words—together with the recent escalation in Riyadh—illustrate the dilemma of the Gulf states. How do you maintain the trust of residents and investors while the threat of new attacks remains?
Security as a selling point
The Gulf states have invested billions over the past decades to attract foreign companies, wealthy migrants, and tourists. Dubai grew into an international financial center, Qatar invested in aviation, education, and international events, and Saudi Arabia is trying with mega-projects to make its economy less dependent on oil.
Security was the important trump card. While wars raged elsewhere in the Middle East, residents of the Gulf states could count on stability.
That image has taken a hit but has not disappeared. When the first rockets and drones reached the Gulf in February, the shock was great. Meanwhile, the feeling of safety has returned, and daily life largely continues.
But especially among tourists and people outside the region, caution remains high. Thus, the war for the Gulf seems not only a security problem but also an image problem.
Economic uncertainty
For Dutch entrepreneurs in the region, the uncertainty is tangible. Disruptions to air traffic and shipping drive up costs, while tourism especially is faltering.
"Some small entrepreneurs have indeed packed up because there is simply no work here for a while," says a Dutch consultant in Dubai, on condition of anonymity.
He also notices that larger companies are becoming more cautious. "I would not call it panic, but people have become somewhat more realistic about the situation here." According to him, concern is growing about the consequences if the uncertainty continues for months.
For now, normal life continues, and the cities on the Persian Gulf are "open for business." Children go to school, companies organize events, and most foreigners see no reason to leave.
But behind that normality lies the realization that the region's future is strongly influenced by what happens in Washington, Tehran, and Tel Aviv.