Top NATO Military Officer Wants to Reassure with Speech, but Doubts About US Role Remain
Projecting that the alliance is ready in case of a Russian attack, that was what the American NATO Supreme Commander Alexus Grynkewich wanted to convey with his speech at the security summit in Warsaw. That message was received by politicians and experts, but in the corridors the question arose again: can NATO count on America when it really matters?
Grynkewich used the speech to reassure the 1 billion inhabitants of NATO countries: there is no war imminent and if an attack does come, there is a plan. The general said he hoped it would never come to that, but he also wanted everyone to know: "We got this."
Yet afterwards there was little sign of great relief. Grynkewich may be NATO's highest military officer, but he also has to relate to his president, Donald Trump. On Friday Trump concluded an agreement on the supply of diesel with Russian President Putin. Putin was precisely the enemy in Grynkewich's story. In any case, Trump is a repeat offender when it comes to sowing doubt about American involvement in NATO.
Doubts Not Removed
"The doubt that exists within the alliance - will the Americans really be there for us? - that has not been removed by this," responded security expert Bob Deen, director of the Clingendael Institute. "This general is a military professional, but ultimately he must follow the political orders of especially the American government. You could see the doubt in the room, of course."
Grynkewich himself was later asked in a panel discussion about the apparent contradiction between his words and the diesel deal. Even then he sounded reassuring: I am here with Trump's permission and no one should doubt the US commitment to NATO, was his answer.
Will American soldiers also fight if Russia attacks, the moderator wanted to know. "Ultimately that is a political decision," but there is really no need for doubt, Grynkewich swore. "I mean: I am here."
The speech was at the same time tough. Grynkewich said he had no indications that an attack was imminent, but he already explained in clear terms what NATO would do in such a case: block, weaken and ultimately break the enemy. No one should think that NATO shies away from military actions, he said. "And we are going to win."
"This American four-star general, appointed by Trump, basically said: we stand for Article 5 ('an attack on one is an attack on all')," responded former top military officer Rob Bauer in Warsaw. "We will go all the way if necessary, was the message."
'Powerful and Clear'
That is also the conclusion of Minister Yesilgöz of Defence, who was also present. She calls the speech powerful and clear. She does not see a contradiction between the words of the American president and those of the American NATO Supreme Commander, although she acknowledges that "sometimes things happen that seem to conflict."
"President Zelensky of Ukraine was here this morning as well," says Yesilgöz. "He emphasized: please ensure that the deal between the US and Russia leaves our energy supplies alone. I think we can better focus on that."
Bauer also does not want to dwell too long on the question of what Grynkewich's words are worth. "Who are we actually helping by asking that question?" he asked rhetorically. He gave the answer himself: Putin.
And Russia?
Grynkewich used his speech to reassure the population in NATO countries. According to him, the intelligence apparatus would immediately see if Russia were preparing an attack. The most important thing, according to him, is deterring the enemy. He did not name Russia explicitly, but everyone knows who he meant.
In Moscow, it was undoubtedly watched with interest. "This will be interpreted in Russia as an aggressive speech," expects Bauer. He thinks they will especially focus on the announcement that enemies will be dealt with harshly. "They will use that internally to mobilize for the war in Ukraine." Russia is struggling to gather enough soldiers for that.
Clingendael director Deen also thinks Putin paid close attention. "The goal was mainly to make clear to Russia that it makes no sense to attack NATO. That every attack will be stopped and ultimately broken."
The Russian president will not have become truly worried, says Deen. "The main question he will have is: is it all true? Is that unity in the alliance really so strong? He will keep testing that in the coming months."