Call for elections now comes from Ukraine itself, how realistic is that in wartime?
Ukraine has been at war with Russia for over four years now, which means that elections have not been allowed for over four years. The Ukrainian constitution states that elections cannot take place during wartime. Yet the call to go to the polls now comes from Ukraine itself, specifically from a former confidant of President Volodymyr Zelensky. How realistic is it to organize elections in the short term?
The call for elections in Ukraine previously came from US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. "They use the war as an excuse not to hold elections," Trump said last December about the Ukrainian government. Putin has also repeatedly said that presidential elections must take place because Zelensky's official term ends in 2024.
And now Mykhailo Fedorov, the recently dismissed Ukrainian Minister of Defense, joins this call. "How long will we let Russia decide when Ukrainians can go to the polls? We cannot let Russia hold democracy hostage," Fedorov said in a video message.
Ukraine correspondent Gert-Jan Dennekamp:
"This call from Fedorov is a huge setback for Zelensky. Fedorov has stood by his side since 2019. He helped with his campaign when Zelensky was elected. And now he fiercely criticizes those in power. He does not mention Zelensky in his video message, but he does describe how he thinks about the current situation where the population has no voice and corruption is rampant. That is very painful for the president."
According to Fedorov, the Ukrainian government must look for a lawful, realistic way to organize elections. But that is easier said than done, says Caecilia van Peski. She previously worked for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), an international organization that monitors elections by sending independent observers to countries. Van Peski has acted as an observer in many countries, including multiple times in Ukraine.
"If you really want to, you can take the path to amend the law. But lengthy processes precede that."
And if that legal amendment does come, various practical obstacles stand in the way of free elections. That starts with the campaign, says Van Peski. "In elections, you assume there is a pluralistic party system, where different candidates present their views to the people. What if they cannot do that in some areas, for example because they are occupied?"
Moreover, since the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian government has taken extensive measures to control the media. This raises the question whether all presidential candidates, especially opponents of the current government, will have the same media space.
And then there is the organization of election day itself. "How do you make polling stations safe?" Van Peski wonders. "Ukrainians are used to a lot and might think: everything for democracy. But according to OSCE standards, people must be able to vote safely without the risk of getting injured."
Voting from the front
Another condition is that all Ukrainian citizens must have the opportunity to vote. For soldiers at the front, that is complicated. "One solution could be to let soldiers vote by mobile phone. If only this technology were not vulnerable to cyberattacks. If on election day the internet is disrupted and soldiers cannot cast their votes, or worse: the results are manipulated by a virus, that is a threat to the democratic process."
Moreover, millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, the vast majority to other European countries. All those countries must therefore ensure that Ukrainians can also vote there. And how can Ukrainians in occupied areas cast their votes? Fedorov has no answers to these questions yet.
What do Ukrainians want?
A majority of the Ukrainian population is not eager for quick elections, according to a recent poll. Only 15 percent advocate elections in the current situation. Most believe elections should only take place once the war is completely over. Van Peski: "Besides the practical obstacles and safety considerations, Ukrainians know: elections can also sow unrest and division. And they feel their country cannot afford that now."