The Philippines and China are on a collision course over claims to island groups and reefs in the South China Sea. China claims almost the entire area and regularly has clashes with neighboring countries that also claim parts of the area based on maritime law.
Manila and Beijing have been disputing for years over the Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Shoal. And now a new potential conflict area seems to be emerging: the Batan Islands, the northernmost province of the Philippines. The location is strategic, about 200 kilometers from Taiwan.
Diplomatic tensions are also rising, following statements by the Chinese ambassador last week. Xu Jing Quan said that China could "easily win" a war, which the Filipinos interpreted as a threat. Quan has since been summoned by the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs.
Claims on the Batan Islands
This summer, a group of Chinese scientists concluded that the Batan Islands are "a natural geographical extension of the island of Taiwan." Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China and now also claims the Batan Islands on that basis.
The islands are not particularly impressive. Only three of the ten are inhabited, with just under 19,000 residents. Among them are mainly fishermen, farmers who cultivate sweet potatoes, and some hotel owners for roughly 13,000 tourists per year.
It is mainly the location that makes a geopolitical impression: in the Luzon Strait, which would provide the Chinese navy with a direct passage to the Pacific Ocean, military experts say.
The Chinese scientific claim was immediately rejected by the Philippines. According to the Department of Foreign Affairs, sovereignty over the Batan Islands "is settled and the discussion is closed." Philippine historians emphasize that the islands have been part of the archipelago since the 18th century, at the time when the Spaniards colonized them.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected China's claims to the South China Sea after the Philippines filed a case. China refuses to recognize the ruling.
There is no legal basis for China to claim the Batan Islands, but by raising the claim, it can start to sound legitimate, says Harvard scholar in Taiwan Studies Felix Brender to Channel News Asia. "The danger is that repetition makes Philippine territory sound disputed."
Diplomatic row
Meanwhile, diplomatic outbursts are increasing. Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro called China a "regional troublemaker." Earlier this summer, China already put Teodoro on a sanctions list because of previous statements.
In response, Ambassador Quan said: "If China were to use military force, we could easily win. But China loves peace and therefore we do not choose violence." The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also added that "the Philippines should rein in such irresponsible behavior from those politicians."
The Filipinos were shocked and say they used their strongest diplomatic tool. The ambassador was summoned by President Marcos. "To me, this sounded like a threat, and not a very diplomatic statement," said the president. "I think it deserves a discussion between the ambassador and me."
The conversation has yet to take place. But Ambassador Xu Jing Quan now denies that his words were intended as a threat.
Still, it is no coincidence that China is speaking out so firmly. Since Marcos took office, his government has been moving closer to the US. Three years ago, his government gave the Americans access to three military bases in northern Luzon. That is the Philippines' main island and the island closest to the Batan Islands and thus Taiwan.
In addition, his military also conducts exercises with Japan in that area. This is a thorn in China's side. Relations between China and Japan have cooled significantly over the past year, after Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi said that a Chinese attack on Taiwan "could create a situation that threatens Japan's survival."
But China is also steadily expanding military exercises and activities in the South China Sea. Last month, the Chinese navy and air force conducted exercises around the Scarborough Shoal, which led to sharp criticism from the Philippines and the US.