Fierce battle over the world's most influential climate report: 'Never experienced anything like this'
It is do or die for the world's most influential climate report. It must be published before a decisive international climate summit in 2028, but the discussion about the timing of publication is turning into a fierce political battle. The authoritative UN climate panel IPCC, currently meeting in Ethiopia, is creaking and cracking as countries clash.
In the report, the seventh so-called assessment report of the IPCC, hundreds of climate scientists from around the world bundle all insights about global warming. It serves as the basis for international climate policy. Moreover, these IPCC reports are among the few things in the polarized climate debate on which almost all countries roughly agree in content.
In the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, the 195 member states are consulting among other things about the time they take for this latest report. The Netherlands, together with European countries and for example small island states, would like to see it published as planned in 2028. But countries with large fossil interests, especially Saudi Arabia and India, are trying to prevent that at all costs.
Because precisely at the 2028 climate summit, countries must assess how much progress has been made to achieve the Paris climate goals. It was agreed there to limit global warming to 2 degrees, preferably to 1.5 degrees. For that assessment, such a compilation of the latest insights is of great importance, because then everyone bases themselves on the same and newest knowledge.
Always a lot of drama
There is always some bickering and theater, says climate expert Leo Meyer, who has been involved with the UN climate panel since 1995. Even now, "supposedly retired," he independently advises the Dutch delegation at the IPCC. "But as intense as it is being played now, I have never experienced in all my years."
This is also said by IPCC expert Kari De Pryck from the University of Lausanne. "This is unprecedented. There has always been a lot of drama at the IPCC, but not about this." For about three years countries have been discussing with each other and the battle reaches its boiling point this week. If no agreement is reached, she foresees problems for the 2028 summit. "They certainly need input from the IPCC there."
Thick reports
To what extent countries deliberately delay this report to obstruct the independent climate scientists is not always clear in all cases. There are also poorer countries that advocate delay because they do not have the people and resources to timely provide comments on the thick reports. That problem plays much less or not at all in richer countries.
"Participation and inclusivity has been an issue from the start. There has been great inequality from the beginning," says De Pryck. Poor countries, where fewer scientists generally have to do with less money, have therefore often had less input and are now putting on the brakes because they do not want to rush their work.
But for example Saudi Arabia, which also aligns with this camp, is known in the world for "obstruction, attempts to delay the IPCC and an anti-scientific attitude," says De Pryck.
"I can imagine there is something legitimate from countries like Kenya," adds Meyer. "But Saudi Arabia, India, Russia and by extension China of course embrace it. They really have an interest in weakening the teeth of the IPCC reports." Especially the Saudis and the Indians use the discussion about participation and inclusivity to defend their fossil industry, it is said behind the scenes.
Political pressure
Yet both experts emphasize that the world will not be in the dark without a timely report. "Of course it is not that countries would have absolutely no idea. Like: 'hey, is there a climate problem? Gee, I better wait for those IPCC reports,'" jokes Meyer. "But in terms of political pressure it certainly has a lot of influence. That pressure is less if you cannot quote from the latest IPCC report."
By tomorrow at the latest, the countries hope to have settled the political battle, so that budgets can be determined and the independent scientists know when their work is expected. If it does not succeed tomorrow and they have to continue into the weekend, it is questionable whether enough representatives remain in Ethiopia to even be able to vote.