No white smoke, but leaked results. Behind closed doors in New York, a successor is being sought for UN chief António Guterres, who will step down on January 1, 2027, after two terms. This time something is missing that was always present early in previous elections: a clear favorite.
Officially, the 193 UN members appoint the new secretary-general. Heads of government and ministers from those countries are in New York this week for the annual summit, and there is intense speculation in the corridors.
The choice is prearranged in the Security Council. There have already been three rounds of voting, in which members can choose approval, disapproval, or no opinion. The secret ballots resemble a papal conclave, with the difference that the results almost always leak. But because voting is anonymous, the voting behavior of individual members remains shrouded in mystery.
Grynspan vs. Rodrigues-Birkett
Former UN staff member Daniel Safran-Hon was the first to know the result of the first round. He is now an advisor at the International Peace Institute, a think tank. "The race is more exciting than ever," he believes.
Former UN trade chief Rebecca Grynspan from Costa Rica narrowly received the most votes in the first round. Guterres and his predecessors Ban Ki-moon and Kofi Annan were already favorites in the first round and eventually won. But now the cards are far from shuffled.
On Friday, Grynspan just received the required minimum of nine votes in a third round. In the second round, she was overtaken by Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, the UN ambassador from Guyana, who now closely follows her with eight votes.
Argentine Rafael Grossi initially also scored high but seems out of the running with five votes for and eight against. Russia openly disapproved of the head of the UN atomic agency. And Michelle Bachelet, the first female president of Chile and former UN human rights commissioner, has already dropped out. Seven candidates remain.
Wikipedia adjusted
It appears candidates have had their Wikipedia pages polished. UN watchers from PassBlue discovered that the Ecuadorian former president of the UN General Assembly was notably praised in a new passage. Stains were actually erased: for a former president of Senegal, "undemocratic maneuvers," "repression," and a "coup attempt" were described in milder terms.
The frontrunner mainly faced attacks. On Grynspan's page, a 'controversies' section was added and removed seventeen times within two weeks. New Wikipedia users tried to insert a poorly substantiated rumor into her biography, but moderators intervened.
Preferably a woman, from Latin America
The two frontrunners both come from Latin America. That continent is unofficially next in line, although African candidates are still in the race.
According to Safran-Hon, Latin American countries must quickly unite around one candidate. "Their unofficial turn is not set in stone." If uncertainty continues, new candidates will come forward.
There is also a loud call for a woman. China would "like to see a woman," for the United Kingdom it is a priority, and the non-permanent members of the Security Council also insist. Their vote counts as much as that of the permanent members, although they have no veto power.
According to Minister Berendsen, also at the UN summit, it would be "very nice" if a woman wins. "Quality comes first, but there are enough women with the qualities to be a good secretary-general."
Glass ceiling
In 80 years, the UN has never been led by a woman. "How can we lecture companies about glass ceilings and maintain them ourselves?" asks Sarah Hendriks. The Canadian with Dutch roots is policy director of the UN women's organization. "This election is a litmus test whether this institution, which has always fought for gender equality, puts words into action."
The political emancipation of women is stagnating. In 54 UN member states, the number of women in parliament has even decreased, according to research by the UN and the World Economic Forum. The number of women in governments also declined in two years.
"At the current pace, it will take 171 years to achieve gender equality," Hendriks calculates. Female leadership has significant advantages, according to her. "When women are at the top, peace and economic prosperity follow. The data shows this."
Colored ballots
If the election drags on too long, the monthly rotating president of the Security Council—currently France, next month Greece—can decide to give the permanent members colored ballots. Then it becomes clear which candidates they support or reject, and candidates can draw their conclusions.
One thing is certain according to Safran-Hon: "It is the first time at this stage that there is no convincing frontrunner."