Today Brazil goes to the polls. It promises to be a neck-and-neck race between the left-wing incumbent president Lula da Silva (80) and the far-right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro (45). He is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for an attempted coup in 2022.
Bolsonaro, with a far-right and conservative agenda, supports a free market with little government interference and tough police actions against crime. President Lula da Silva, who grew up in deep poverty, is known for his progressive and social agenda, such as special family allowances for the poorest (bolsa familia).
Protection of the Amazon is also high on Lula's agenda. Both candidates are almost tied in the polls and leave three right-wing candidates far behind.
Disappointed in Lula
For Brazilians, the main issues are the economy and security. Although unemployment is historically low, the cost of living has risen and crime and the power of drug cartels have increased.
In Vilar dos Teles, a suburb of Rio de Janeiro, Patricia Ferreira da Silva takes the laundry off the line and calls her children to eat. She lives on odd jobs. Sometimes she collects bottles and cans for money or works as a restroom attendant in a bar.
"I just manage to give my children a plate of food, nothing more," she says. She lives in a small house with crumbling walls and some sheets for windows. Ferreira voted repeatedly for incumbent president Lula da Silva, hoping for a better life.
"But I am disappointed in Lula because I can't get ahead. Groceries have become more expensive and I can't find steady work," she says. She has been robbed three times and had to hand over her phone and money to criminals. "I want a radical change and that's why I am voting for Bolsonaro now," she says determinedly.
Defeating the Left
A few days before the elections, Flavio Bolsonaro campaigns extensively in Patricia's neighborhood. He stands on a large sound truck while hundreds of youths on scooters and with flags follow the procession on the street. "We will defeat Lula! We will defeat the left!" Bolsonaro's voice booms through the loudspeakers.
Flavio Bolsonaro is currently a senator. He has announced that he will grant amnesty to his father if he wins the elections. "If I am inaugurated on January 1, 2027, my father will stand beside me," said Flavio Bolsonaro.
For Carmen Souza Mendes (52), who is at a gathering supporting president Lula da Silva, the return to a Bolsonaro government is a great nightmare. "This weekend we stand at a crossroads as Brazilians. Do we choose democracy or fascism?" she says.
Former president Bolsonaro was convicted for an attempted coup after the 2022 elections, which he narrowly lost to Lula. A voluminous file of hundreds of pages from the federal police with emails and phone calls showed that a murder plan was also prepared to eliminate, among others, president Lula.
Support from the US
In early January 2023, Bolsonaro's supporters stormed and destroyed government buildings and democratic institutions such as the Supreme Court. They were sentenced to long prison terms. If the Bolsonaros return to government, the chance that they will also receive amnesty is high.
"I am very afraid that we will be pushed back to an authoritarian regime and that we will not get rid of this Bolsonaro family for the foreseeable future if they win the elections," Souza Mendes says worriedly.
Between 1964 and 1985, Brazil was a military dictatorship. The coup was then supported by the US. Since the inauguration of president Trump, the US has again been heavily involved in Latin America. Several countries in the region received right-wing governments last year with US support.
Selling Rare Earth Metals
President Lula da Silva recently said during the United Nations General Assembly that Brazil "will not be anyone's backyard," referring to what he sees as attempts by Trump to influence these elections. Trump is said to be mainly after Brazil's natural resources, as it is the largest and richest country in the region. Brazil has, after China, the largest reserves of rare earth metals. Flavio Bolsonaro has already announced that he is open to selling these rare earth metals to the US.
The chance that one of the two candidates will win in the first round today is small. It is more likely that the elections will be decided in a second, definitive round on October 25.