How does NATO defeat Russia if that country attacks the military alliance? The military commander of the alliance will give the answer this afternoon at a security summit in Warsaw.
The announcement of his speech promises nothing less than a 'theory of victory' over the Russians. Because the title reads: 'The Theory of Victory: How Do We Achieve Military Success Against Russia Through Deterrence and Defense?'
According to news site Bloomberg, it states that NATO wants to quickly repel a Russian attack using artificial intelligence and large numbers of drones. Ground troops would also need to be deployed to stop an invasion and destroy the Russian command structure.
Speech live on NOS
The speech of the American Supreme Commander of NATO, General Alexus Grynkewich, can be followed live from 1:00 PM via the NOS app and NOS.nl. NOS correspondents Kysia Hekster (NATO) and Christiaan Paauwe (Eastern Europe) will explain in the stream what makes the speech so special.
The speech comes at a tense moment. European countries are increasingly seeing 'hybrid attacks' suspected to be orchestrated by the Russians. These attacks are also becoming more serious. They involve arson at ammunition depots with weapons for Ukraine, sabotage on the railways, armed or unarmed drones appearing, or hacks. Western intelligence services see the number of attacks rapidly increasing.
Panic is the goal
The attacks aim to sow panic and reduce support for Ukraine. For NATO, it is difficult to respond to these kinds of attacks that are not 'severe' enough to fully retaliate, as intended in the famous NATO Article 5 ('an attack on one is an attack on all'). Moreover, it is often difficult to prove that the Russians are indeed behind them.
Meanwhile, a discussion has erupted about the term 'hybrid attacks.' "We must stop using that," says, for example, the foreign minister of Estonia. According to him, these are terrorist attacks and sabotage operations amounting to 'a kind of war.' At headquarters in Brussels, there is caution. The thought is that we must not be provoked, keep a cool head, and continue supporting Ukraine.
Yet apparently now is the time for a public NATO response to the Russians. It comes from the mouth of NATO's military commander Alexus Grynkewich, an American four-star general. As well known as NATO leader Mark Rutte is, the military commander, jargon SACEUR, an abbreviation of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, is usually anonymous. The highest operational commander of the alliance is always an American; the political top leader is a European.
Speech especially special
That the SACEUR today actively seeks out the media makes it especially notable, says Eleonora Russell, former head of communications of NATO's military branch. She thinks it is good that Grynkewich is going public.
"Such a broadly announced, strategic speech has never been given by his predecessors. But Grynkewich is different. He says: if I do not speak out, the chance of war increases. He has good relations with the White House. What he is going to say has the support of Trump."
In this way, the alliance also hopes to show that the American president is "fully committed" to NATO, as Rutte keeps emphasizing. Trump himself often sows doubt about his involvement. For example, he said that NATO countries that do not contribute enough to the alliance may be attacked as far as he is concerned.
This week he also concluded an agreement with President Putin for the import of large quantities of diesel oil, intended to lower prices at the pump for the midterm elections in America.
According to the British newspaper Financial Times, the American president also threatens to stop arms deliveries via a NATO program to Ukraine if that country continues attacking Russian energy supplies.
Cooperation, not deterrence
These are examples of cooperation with Moscow instead of deterrence. Yet the speech this afternoon must reassure NATO countries and make clear that the alliance is ready to strike back if necessary.
According to Russell, this 'theory of victory' is not NATO's first, but it is a first that it is partly presented at the request of the allies.
In Moscow and Beijing, the speech will undoubtedly be listened to with interest. But is it wise to release such a NATO playbook with all the ins and outs? "Of course, he will not do that," says Russell. She thinks Moscow will use the story anyway as 'proof' that the alliance is out for war.
In the speech, the opposite will be emphasized: NATO is a defensive alliance that reacts to an attack. Deterring the Russians is the goal of the theory of victory, so that it does not have to become reality.