Yesterday, American President Trump announced that Russia will immediately deliver 300,000 tons of diesel to the US. Much is still vague about the agreement. For example, it is unclear when exactly the diesel will go to the US and what it means for the price Americans pay at the pump.
At a later time, Russia would deliver even larger quantities, ranging from 500,000 to 3 million liters. After the news, the future price for diesel dropped slightly. What it means for the price in the longer term is still completely unclear.
In four questions, we explain why the Americans are making this deal now and what it means for Ukraine.
Why was this deal made now?
Trump already said it in his message announcing the deal: it is about "lower fuel prices for Americans." Since the start of the war, hardly any oil has been transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a doubling of American diesel prices.
It is a headache dossier for the American president. In less than a month, the midterm elections for the US Congress will take place. Polls show that Trump is seen as responsible for the high prices at the pump. This could lead to the Republicans losing their majority. To turn the tide, Trump previously considered an export ban on diesel. Now Trump comes with the deal with Russia.
Correspondent Central and Eastern Europe Christiaan Paauwe:
"It is yet another blow for Kyiv regarding the relationship with America, formerly the most important ally. Especially because of the signal Washington sends with this. Russia is further pulled out of international isolation.
Zelensky repeatedly emphasizes that Putin can only be forced to seriously talk about peace with further pressure, but the opposite is happening here. In the meantime, you also see Trump lashing out at Zelensky and saying that Ukraine must stop airstrikes on the Russian oil industry.
Ukraine has made clear that these airstrikes, which it describes as 'direct sanctions,' will not stop unless Russia stops airstrikes on Ukraine. But Putin does not want to stop that, and we hear no more from Trump about it."
Is this compatible with the sanctions imposed on Russia?
President Biden imposed an import ban on Russian oil, natural gas, and coal after the invasion of Ukraine. That remained in effect under Trump. Last month, he still signed a law enabling extensive US sanctions against Russia.
That law states that the US can impose import duties up to 100 percent on countries that buy a lot of Russian fuels. Trump is now setting that law aside: the US Department of the Treasury has granted a temporary license for the import of Russian diesel.
What does this yield Russia and what does it mean for Ukraine?
President Zelensky is, to put it mildly, not pleased with Trump's decision. On Telegram, he called it a "gift for Putin." According to him, the US is playing into Russia's hands with this and it has major consequences for the war in Ukraine.
According to Zelensky, the Russian war chest is being filled by the deal. He states that "every extra billion dollars Russia can earn is spent on nothing but weapons." According to him, the Russian attacks are indicative of what buying Russian diesel means: "prolonging the war, terrorizing ordinary people, and destroying infrastructure."
Not only in words but also in deeds, Ukraine shows that the country is angry. For example, a large fire broke out at an oil terminal in the port from which Russia would transport the fuel, in Rostov-on-Don. It is suspected that this was caused by a Ukrainian airstrike.
The American president has again emphasized that Ukraine must stop attacks, adding that he thinks Ukraine should get a new leader.
How can Russia deliver diesel to the US?
Russia is a country with enormous oil fields but is itself struggling with a fuel shortage due to Ukrainian attacks on its oil industry. Ukraine regularly carries out attacks on oil refineries in Russia, where crude oil is converted into fuels.
This summer, that led to queues at gas stations in all corners of the country. Russia then decided on an export ban for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene. The Kremlin also made a deal with India for the import of fuel.
Russia can therefore probably only deliver limited diesel, but every dollar it earns can be used for weapons production.
Putin's advisor Ushakov reported yesterday that peace talks with Ukraine were discussed in the conversation between Putin and Trump, but that Russia's goals have remained the same. This means that Russia continues the war.