On many subjects, Beijing and Washington disagree. But on one theme, they are strikingly united on the eve of the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in the US capital: artificial intelligence. "It is a race in which both countries want to be number one," says political scientist Elly Rostoum.
Rostoum previously worked for US intelligence agencies and now teaches at Johns Hopkins University. According to her, the harmful aspects of AI are no reason for the two countries to hit the brakes. "Both want to have the most advanced model," she says. "That is the main driving force."
Trump was clear this week in his speech to the United Nations. "We are far ahead of China, and we want to keep it that way," he said. "I will not slow down the growth of something that can become bigger than the Industrial Revolution." That AI is pushing stock markets to record highs has not escaped his notice. "We will stimulate it, not restrain it."
America still holds the best cards in terms of computing power and chips, although China is working hard to close the gap. Moreover, Beijing has its own assets, for example in the form of critical rare earth metals and cheap energy.
"If you look purely at technology, the United States really has the upper hand," says China expert James Lewis. However, he points out that China gains extra motivation from the export restrictions imposed by the United States. "Chinese Huawei has therefore said: our goal is to catch up with American Nvidia."
Increasing Role of AI
Recently, developments have followed each other rapidly. For example, AI agents from various companies repeatedly broke out of their protected test environments. They managed to penetrate external systems without permission.
Furthermore, artificial intelligence plays an increasingly larger role on the international battlefield. CNN reported last week about a Chinese ship in the Middle East, which according to a US analyst was carrying material for a nuclear weapons program. The US military was ready to board the ship, planes had already taken off.
At the last moment, it became clear that none of the data the analyst had gathered with the help of artificial intelligence was correct. A source told CNN that the error "almost led to a war."
That last did not happen, but incidents like these are why concern among many Americans has greatly increased. In a recent Politico poll, 63 percent of Americans expressed fear that AI at least carries the risk of humanity being destroyed.
Americans Want Safety; Washington Wants to Stay Ahead of China
Concrete agreements between China and the US to hit the brakes will not be made at the summit in Washington, thinks political scientist Rostoum. "But I do see China and America talking more with each other at lower levels about the risks of AI, also at the level of companies."
Scott Bessent, Trump's Secretary of the Treasury, already opened the door for this over the weekend. After talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, he announced that an AI dialogue will take place. "We are open to talks about limiting shared risks and preventing our two systems from completely diverging," said Bessent.
Parallels with the Cold War
The distrust of China is meanwhile great, says Edgard Kagan. He was East Asia advisor under President Biden. According to Kagan, there are parallels to be drawn with the Cold War, when the US and the Soviet Union negotiated about strategic nuclear weapons. "Although the difference is that back then there was more insight into each other's technological knowledge."
Now it is different because technological developments follow each other at a furious pace. "Even then, both parties were afraid the other was cheating, but there was still some mutual understanding. With AI, even the most basic level of trust is currently missing."
For that reason, China expert Lewis is also skeptical about a real dialogue. "What would a concession in the field of cybersecurity even be? 'I promise not to use AI to spy on you?' Both sides could agree to that, but such an agreement is meaningless."