Concerns at NATO and EU over further escalation after Russian drone attack on train
From all over Europe, there is outrage in response to the Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian train that was traveling from Kyiv to the Polish capital Warsaw. There were no casualties in yesterday's attack; the train staff had been warned by the railways.
"The attack shows how desperate Putin is," says NATO chief Mark Rutte. "A deliberate escalation" by the Russian president, calls German Defense Minister Pistorius. "Intended to intimidate and divide Europeans," according to the French foreign minister. "An attack on a train so close to the Polish border is meant to deter Western countries supporting Ukraine," says EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Relief
A few minutes earlier, another train passed the spot where the drone struck, full of diplomats, politicians, and scientists who had attended a security conference in Kyiv.
"But we only heard later that there were just a few minutes between the moment we passed and the attack," says Member of the European Parliament Reinier van Lanschot (Volt), who was also on board.
Van Lanschot did not see or hear the attack. "Only when we were in Warsaw did it sink in what had happened. Then I felt relief, but the danger had already passed."
Whether the drone was aimed at the train he was on is unclear. But the attack fits within a worrying pattern of Russian escalation towards the West, says Van Lanschot. He points to the drone with explosives and a detonator found in August near Leipzig airport. An action by Russia, the German government announced this month.
Article 5
A year ago, about twenty Russian drones entered Polish airspace. For the first time, NATO fighter jets shot them down, including Dutch F-35s.
NATO immediately started an investigation into the origin of the drones, but no results ever came. Shortly after the start, insiders already said not to expect conclusions. It is difficult to unequivocally establish that the drones deliberately violated NATO airspace. Moreover, allies are not united on a response. The military alliance can only act if all 32 members unanimously agree.
A year later, NATO continues to struggle with how to respond to Russian escalations. The allies have the option to request an 'Article 4 meeting,' where partners come together. This happened twice in a short time, initiated by Poland and Estonia. Such a meeting is less serious than invoking Article 5, where an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members.
Worn-out tool
Behind the scenes, it is heard that NATO chief Rutte has said internally not to hold more of these meetings. If it happens too often, the tool becomes worn out, is the thinking.
But what can the alliance do? A year ago, mission Eastern Sentry started, Eastern Watch, in which all existing NATO activities on the eastern border were combined.
That does not deter enough for now; the EU and NATO are facing more and increasingly dangerous 'hybrid' attacks. These include cyberattacks, fires in storage facilities, or explosives on the tracks. Intelligence services see Russia becoming increasingly active.
Division within NATO
According to Russia, NATO is already at war with the country. But the alliance emphasizes it does not want to enter into direct conflict with Russia. Moreover, Russian actions remain below the threshold of an attack under Article 5, the defensive alliance judges.
There is also division among NATO countries. The countries bordering Russia and Belarus want a tougher response than countries further away. And nothing can be done unless everyone agrees.
The Americans are also putting the brakes on within the alliance. They do not want to jeopardize the 'peace talks' with Moscow by a too harsh NATO response.
'Response not always visible'
And so the group continues to struggle with how to respond to the attacks. The topic has high priority at headquarters during NATO ambassadors' meetings.
Rutte says all possible responses to Russia's hybrid attacks are ready. "But they will not always be visible." Behind the scenes at NATO, it is heard that this could involve intelligence services of individual countries carrying out cyberattacks in Russia.
Member of the European Parliament Van Lanschot sees more aid to Ukraine as the best option. "We can do much more to support Ukraine: think of using Russia's frozen assets or providing more Patriot air defense systems."