What will be Europe's response to increasingly aggressive forms of Russia's 'hybrid actions'? In the coming days, the EU ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs will deliberate on this question in Ireland.
The long list of sabotage actions, hacks and other attacks in Europe is a source of great concern. The incidents are becoming increasingly dangerous: at the end of August, fighter jets in Romania shot down a sea drone loaded with explosives; before that, drones with explosives were found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport.
It is often difficult to unequivocally determine who sent the drones. But it is expected that German Chancellor Merz will announce today or tomorrow that after thorough investigation he is certain that Moscow is behind the drones in Leipzig. That would be a step that cannot remain without consequences; Berlin will then respond with a countermeasure.
Germany correspondent Charlotte Waaijers on Merz's reaction:
"As long as the German government did not openly point to Russia, Merz could postpone a response. He has been able to use that time to coordinate options within his government. Various suggestions have come up in recent days: expelling Russian diplomats again, further increasing support to Ukraine, or closing the 'Russia House' in Berlin: this is a cultural institution, but there are indications it is being misused for propaganda and espionage.
Merz will have to balance showing strength and concerns about further escalation, while keeping options open in case Russia goes further."
The German sanctions are coordinated with EU and NATO partners, but a European response will also be necessary. All EU countries are affected by the actions in some way, although it is often not convincingly proven that Russia is behind them. But what can the EU do? In informal talks, voices are heard about sanctions against hundreds of Russians and Russian companies.
"It is not about striking back in Russia," says defence expert Michelle Haas from Ghent University. "It is never Europe's intention to let things get out of hand, but to create conditions to actually de-escalate. Naming those responsible for such actions is part of that, just as building up your own defence."
More support for Ukraine?
According to Haas, the increased threat in Europe is related to the growing air attacks on Ukraine. "Russia sees an opportunity to hit Ukraine harder and at the same time tries to undermine European support for Ukraine by stepping up hybrid attacks. European states are vulnerable; there are no ready-made solutions."
The EU ministers are also discussing today and tomorrow the further increase of European aid to Ukraine. Additional support is urgently needed: President Zelensky has long been asking for more air defence. The situation is dire. Almost every night Russia sends hundreds of drones to the country. Just this past weekend, dozens died when a munitions depot exploded after a drone strike near Kyiv.
The very fast ballistic missiles also cause headaches. Due to a dramatic shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, Ukraine is virtually powerless. Only American Patriot missiles can so far intercept those hypersonic missiles. Europeans are in a dilemma: countries have already given many supplies to Ukraine, the Americans have severely depleted their stocks due to the Iran war and prefer to keep the missiles themselves.
'The problem is acute'
As after every EU meeting, the emphasis will again be on continuing to support Ukraine. "Much has been done, but at this moment more is needed; it cannot remain just nice words," says defence expert Haas. "If Europe does not manage to increase the number of anti-aircraft missiles for Ukraine this coming winter, 'we stand behind Ukraine' is somewhat an empty promise."
"It is good that there are new plans to also produce missiles in Europe, but that is mainly interesting for the coming years," Haas continues. "The problem is acute. There are still stocks with European states; there is still the possibility to deliver more. That is the only short-term solution."
Harsh European accusations and new sanctions against Moscow and more support to Ukraine: the EU ministers in Ireland are well aware that Russia will respond again. The fear is therefore that tensions between Russia and the EU and NATO will further escalate in the near future.