The state elections in Saxony-Anhalt have turned into nothing less than a political thriller. Until late into the night, it remained uncertain whether the right-wing radical AfD had secured an absolute majority in seats. Even Tatort, the sacred Sunday evening TV crime show, had to give way at the last moment for extra news broadcasts.
In the preliminary result, the AfD, which in Saxony-Anhalt has been labeled extremist by the security service, comes out with just under 44 percent of the votes. That is not enough to govern alone, as AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund wants: his party can count on 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament.
Yet a right-wing radical state government is within reach. The populist BSW has, against expectations, narrowly passed the 5 percent electoral threshold and is expected to receive five seats. That party has previously stated it is willing to help the AfD come to power, but now leaves it undecided.
'Historic turning point'
The historic victory of the AfD shakes German politics to its core. The party has long been strong in East Germany, which feels disadvantaged compared to the West. Yet many considered such a large victory impossible. The shock is noticeable in the German government, where it is spoken of as nothing less than a historic turning point.
For a long time, it was thought that the AfD could be fought with the so-called firewall: complete isolation of the party by refusing to cooperate in any way. That wish has not come true.
CDU federal chancellor Merz wanted to halve the AfD by implementing a strict asylum policy. The opposite happened: the AfD doubled, the CDU halved. For the AfD supporter, the policy still does not go far enough.
Revelations about far-right contacts, cronyism, and outspoken pro-Russian positions have not deterred voters, nor have warnings from Holocaust survivors and churches not to vote for the party. Voters dismissed the objections and simply called the 'old parties' wrong, corrupt, and elitist.
This leaves the centrist parties at their wit's end: nothing seems to work to stop the rise of the AfD. The party itself feels invincible. This result also strengthens the extremist wing, which has shown that voters are not deterred by a more radical course.
With this result, pressure on Chancellor Merz increases. Dissatisfaction with him has existed for some time. It is present within his own party, but especially among voters. Early newspaper commentaries call for his departure, as does the lower party cadre. That voice will now gain momentum.
What next?
In Saxony-Anhalt, politically turbulent weeks are ahead. BSW advocates for a caretaker cabinet, but if that fails, the party is open to appointing AfD leader Siegmund as premier. The alternative is a coalition of all other parties together, except the AfD. That is not realistic, as there are multiple mutual blockades.
So far, the AfD itself has rejected coalition formation, also with BSW. Siegmund says he extends his hand "as a democrat," but only on the condition that AfD plans are implemented.
AfD plans
For example, the AfD wants to move asylum children to separate classes within the first hundred days, introduce a ban on rainbow flags in schools, and cancel the treaty that regulates public broadcasting. After that, the party wants to stop subsidies for 'anti-German' culture and church organizations, adjust history education, and replace the security service.
Many of the asylum plans are unconstitutional or regulated at the national level; in other words, Siegmund cannot do much about them. However, the AfD can reduce asylum reception and change the education of asylum children. Siegmund also promises to "put pressure on foreign restaurants" so that they leave, and to punish churches that grant church asylum.
In recent months, the current state government has already prepared for an AfD government. Laws have recently been passed to protect the judiciary, as well as public broadcasting and political education programs. There are also plans to limit the access of the Saxony-Anhalt security service to state-sensitive information.
Impasse
It may take a long time before the state has a new government, with or without the AfD. A months-long impasse is possible: no legal date has been set for when the premier elections must take place.
Meanwhile, in political Berlin, wounds can be licked. And looking ahead, because in two weeks there will be two more state elections: in Berlin and in the East German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The AfD is also growing there, but unlike in Saxony-Anhalt, it does not yet seem a foregone conclusion according to polls, and the governing parties can compete for the win. That can offer hope for the German government.