Grain farmer Murat Adzhiev and his workers drive tractors around the city of Stavropol to harvest the crops from the land. The beginning of autumn means harvest time for farmers in southern Russia. He has a record yield this year, but he does not know where all the grain should go.
In southern Russia, the grain silos are overflowing. Normally, the grain goes to the international market, but Russian grain exports have been decimated by the war with Ukraine.
"There are problems with logistics, for understandable reasons," Adzhiev says to a camera crew from NOS. "Because of this, farmers cannot sell the grain to the intermediary for export."
These logistical problems are the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Exporting grain via this route is too risky. As a result, Russian grain exports have come to a 95 percent standstill.
Earlier during the war that Russia started against Ukraine, grain exports largely came to a halt. The Russian invasion in 2022 led to fighting in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Under the leadership of the United Nations, the countries later that year agreed on a grain deal. They agreed not to attack ships carrying grain. This allowed the grain to return to the world market.
A year later, Russia terminated the agreement. According to the Kremlin, the export of Russian fertilizer and wheat was being hindered, and therefore it no longer wanted to cooperate with the export of Ukrainian grain. Since this summer, attacks on grain ships have become common again.
Both Russian and Ukrainian farmers are victims of this. Now that the fighting at the front has largely stalled, Russia is trying to hit Ukraine in other ways. Ukraine, in turn, wants the war to also be felt by ordinary Russians.
The grain sector of the enemy is a strategic target for both countries because of its great economic importance. By blocking exports with attacks, they try to economically exhaust each other.
Global consequences
That the grain is once again not leaving the ports has worldwide consequences. Russia is the largest grain exporter in the world. It normally exports 10 percent of the grain consumed worldwide.
In the first three weeks of August, Russia exported 2.5 times less grain than in the same period last year, according to the Russian Grain Union. Barley and corn went to the international market 4.6 and 2.7 times less respectively than in the same period last year. If this trend continues, it will be the lowest export figure in the past ten years.
For countries dependent on Russian grain, this means record prices. Especially countries like Egypt and Sudan obtain a large part of their grain from Russia.
Selling below purchase price
Russian farmers see none of these high prices. The domestic market is overcrowded, and as a result, their selling prices have plummeted. For many farmers, it yields so little that they cannot buy seed for the next season.
On social media, they talk about the situation. "It is selling at cost price and breaking even, or making a loss." Another farmer says: "We can also wait to sell, but on what, is unclear. There is a large harvest everywhere."
The problems are known in Moscow. The government is looking into whether grain can be exported from the northern city of Murmansk. That city is more than 3,000 kilometers from Stavropol.
Murmansk is also within reach of Ukrainian drones. But because that city is much further from the front, grain exports there will probably be less disrupted than on the routes via the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
For Adzhiev and his colleagues, it is a matter of waiting until the grain can go to market again. "Those who can store the harvest are doing well," he says. But for many farmers, that is not feasible. He is pessimistic: "Most farmers will not survive financially. I think it will lead to many bankruptcies and takeovers."
For Ukraine, the halt of the grain industry is disastrous. The country is economically heavily dependent on exports: