Iran and the US are bickering over a proposal for a ceasefire. It is yet another attempt to end the war that began at the end of February with an Israeli-American airstrike against Iran.
The weapons are more or less silent at the moment, but there is still a power struggle ongoing between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran demands control over the economically crucial sea passage, while America is trying to enforce a blockade of Iranian ships.
Neither side can fully impose its will. Iran appears less capable of strangling the global economy than initially feared. But that does not simply mean the fight will be decided in America's favor.
Pressure tool
Tehran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to ships that do not coordinate their passage with Iranian authorities. Several ships that did not comply have been attacked by Iran in recent days, reports the elite corps the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
Three oil tankers in the strait were hit by projectiles on Tuesday, says maritime intelligence agency Marisks. It is unclear whether these are the same ships that Iran allegedly attacked, but the psychological effect is no less significant. The crews of tankers in the Persian Gulf may be discouraged from continuing their passage.
Since August, the US has been trying to force a breakthrough. The US Navy quietly escorts oil tankers daily through the strait. Due to this operation, more oil is now reaching the world market via the Strait of Hormuz. If this trend continues and oil exports reach pre-war levels, Iran risks losing control over its biggest trump card: the high oil price as leverage against Washington.
Declaration of intent
Perhaps due to this strategic setback, Tehran is trying to revive a previously signed declaration of intent between the two countries.
In June, the US and Iran agreed to lay down arms, open the Strait of Hormuz, and reach a permanent peace agreement through negotiations within two months. But soon Iran and the US began attacking each other again, and this declaration of intent, in President Trump's words, was "over."
Last week, Iran presented a new, "improved" version of it to Qatari mediators and said that normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be resumed under conditions. President Trump rejected this new version of the declaration of intent, but mediation continues.
The text drafted by Iran has not been made public, but based on leaked details, analysts do not believe Iran is proposing anything substantially different than last time. The American think tank Institute for the Study of War points out that Iran maintains the position that it has the right to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hardliners
Iran's economy is deteriorating. Oil revenues have suffered greatly under the American blockade. The Iranian rial, the national currency, has plummeted and there is a severe shortage of hard currency. Inflation has been above 80 percent for months.
Although some Iranian leaders worry about a popular uprising like the one earlier this year, the regime does not seem willing to yield to American demands in exchange for lifting sanctions.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public since his appointment. In his absence, the hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard hold the most influence in Tehran. They seem far from ready to abandon the familiar goals: exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the Iranian nuclear program, and continuing to support militant allies abroad such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. All goals that the Americans are firmly opposed to.