The United States opens a new front in the war against Iran today. Not with bombs and missiles, but with what US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls an "economic D-day." Washington wants to completely isolate Iran from the global economy and also threatens to punish other countries and companies that continue to do business with Tehran.
Bessent speaks of "the largest financial attack ever launched against an adversary." Tonight at 8:00 PM Dutch time, he will announce the exact measures the US will take. It is already clear that the US wants to hit not only Iran itself but especially its trading partners.
Countries that transport Iranian oil, enable financial transactions, allow Iranian airplanes, or register ships that help Iran circumvent sanctions, must choose according to Bessent. Those who keep Iran economically afloat risk being economically isolated themselves.
This puts China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, in the spotlight. Beijing criticized the American threats and says sanctions do not solve the conflict.
From military to economic pressure
The strategy marks a new phase in the conflict that has now lasted almost six months. Since the heavy US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the Iranian counterattacks, there have been no direct attacks between Iran and the US for weeks. However, a political solution is also not in sight.
Washington believes Iran is now vulnerable enough to force the regime to its knees with economic means. The Iranian economy was already struggling before the war with high inflation, a weak rial, energy problems, and years of sanctions. The damaged infrastructure, lost production, and high costs for reconstruction have been added to that.
The goal goes beyond the earlier US campaign of "maximum pressure." Bessent says that "every economic lifeline" of Iran must be cut off. According to him, complete financial isolation can prevent the need for large-scale American military violence again.
"More sanctions and better enforcement of them can increase the pressure somewhat, partly because they further weaken the Iranian currency and undermine the confidence of citizens and investors," says an Iranian analyst on condition of anonymity to NOS from Tehran. "The greatest damage comes at the moment of the naval blockade. If that continues for a few more weeks or months without any relief, it can have truly devastating consequences."
Hormuz as main weapon
However, Tehran has a powerful economic counterweapon: the Strait of Hormuz. A significant part of the world's oil and gas exports passes through this sea passage.
"If the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor anywhere from the Persian Gulf," warned Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council. Countries participating in the American campaign can, according to him, be considered participants in the war by Iran.
But full Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz does not exist in practice, says Sayed Ghoneim, chairman of the Institute for Global Security & Defense Affairs in Abu Dhabi. In recent weeks, more commercial ships have been sailing through the strait again, mostly close to the Omani coast and under American escort.
"The increase in shipping traffic shows that Iran's ability to control and deter shipping is decreasing," Ghoneim tells NOS. "But that does not mean Iran has lost its ability to disrupt shipping or increase its costs."
Who sets the rules?
"The next battle may be less about reopening the strait and more about the rules under which it operates," he says. "Who determines the shipping routes? Who guarantees security? And who gets a role in regulating shipping?"
Oman plays an especially important role in this. Muscat is trying to make agreements with Iran to keep shipping going. Iran can thus try to claim a lasting role in managing Hormuz, while Washington wants to prevent an Iranian-Omani arrangement in which the US is sidelined.
This means the economic attack by Washington can have an unintended effect. The greater the American pressure on Iran and countries cooperating with Tehran, the greater the incentive for Iran to keep Hormuz as a pressure tool.
The "economic D-day" is thus also a gamble: Washington tries to financially remove Iran's last negotiating space, while Tehran threatens to use the world's most important energy route as an economic weapon.