Russia would like to test NATO "within a few months" by carrying out small, possibly hybrid attacks on NATO territory. With this, Russian President Putin would want to show that NATO Article 5, which states that an attack on one ally is an attack on all, is "more theoretical than practical".
That is what three European intelligence service chiefs told the British newspaper The Guardian. They do not want to speculate on what such a test would look like or its scale, but according to them it is clear that Russia wants to sow unrest.
The head of the Czech intelligence service Michal Koudelka told the newspaper that it could involve actions such as an increase in drone activities, a small incursion from a territory bordering Russia, or other hybrid actions. He added that "many people are doing everything to prevent that".
Today, European foreign ministers are meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. There they will decide how to respond if deaths occur among EU or NATO member states in a Russian attack.
Hybrid attacks
The statements from the intelligence services are not isolated. Within Europe and NATO there have long been concerns about further escalation by the Russians. On Friday, Polish Prime Minister Tusk said there is "a real risk that Russia will fire drones or other projectiles at the eastern flank of the European NATO area." Today, the Dutch Ministry of Defence announced that the Dutch reconnaissance drones patrolling there will remain until the end of 2027 to monitor this eastern border of NATO.
A few days earlier, Ukraine was attacked by Russia with hundreds of drones. A passenger train near the border crossing between Ukraine and Poland was also hit. Polish Prime Minister Tusk then said he "cannot rule out that this escalation will also affect our territory."
The Polish prime minister also warned that Russia is preparing hybrid attacks on countries supporting Ukraine. Dutch intelligence services had already written in a report that "the threat of Russian hybrid activities has increased." The services suspect Russia is responsible for, among other things, arson, disruption of air traffic with drones, and damage to undersea cables.
'Gamechanger'
The recent example where a drone with explosives was found at the German airport of Leipzig is, according to Swedish intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson, a "gamechanger." He sees it as such because of the possible deadly victims or destruction of crucial infrastructure with enormous consequences for society, says Nilsson.
Such actions do not remain unanswered. According to a source from the French military quoted by the newspaper Le Monde, France regularly acts - secretly - against these kinds of hybrid attacks from Russia. NATO chief Mark Rutte also said the alliance has all possible responses to Russian hybrid attacks. "But those will not always be visible."
Sowing division
The intelligence chiefs add that the threat is twofold. On the one hand, they state it is real, but on the other hand they note that the Kremlin has an interest in fear in Europe and NATO. The Latvian intelligence chief says it is not clear whether the plans Moscow has are concrete or part of a "destabilization strategy."
Russia would "escalate to de-escalate," Koudelka told The Guardian. The Kremlin's tactic would be to sow doubt within societies about support for Ukraine. That is why Russian attacks increasingly target the European defense sector and infrastructure.
'Endless discussion, no action'
Russia believes that Western countries are complicit in the war with Ukraine by supporting the country and claims it is already fighting NATO in that country, but Russia denies having plans to carry out direct (hybrid) attacks on NATO countries. Those words are unreliable: prior to the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin also consistently denied that Russia would attack that country.
If NATO countries feel threatened in their security, they can convene an Article 4 meeting, where the allies come together. This happened twice recently, but NATO chief Rutte is said to have internally advised not to hold such meetings too often, because such top-level consultations then become less meaningful.
According to Nilsson, "it would suit Russia well if NATO endlessly discusses but no action is taken."