On August 5, Ukraine intercepted zero of the 28 ballistic missiles fired by Russia. At least 17 people died that day in the attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region.
Shortly thereafter, Ukraine stopped publishing the exact numbers of fired and intercepted ballistic missiles. But the deadly missile attacks this week show that Ukraine is under great pressure.
Ukraine sees the bottom of its air defense stock approaching, and the US has used up a lot in Iran. "America can no longer credibly defend other places," says geopolitical analyst Haroon Sheikh (VU). "And the rivals see that."
What is the situation at this moment? According to The Kyiv Independent, Russia fired the largest number of ballistic missiles at Ukraine in July since the start of this war.
Where Ukraine earlier this year still managed to intercept the majority of the missiles, that was no longer possible in that month. "The situation is critical," says Mark Cancian, defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Russian drones and cruise missiles can be shot down by Ukraine with, for example, fighter jets or smaller air defense weapons for the most part, although that is also becoming more difficult. But it is especially the ballistic missiles for which Ukraine no longer has a good defense system.
The problem: while the Russians are significantly ramping up their missile production, Ukraine is without Patriot missiles needed to shoot down ballistic missiles. Cancian: "The Russian missiles then get through. And that causes a lot of damage."
In Kyiv they are holding their breath for the next Russian attack:
Patriot is an American weapons system and the US itself produces by far the most Patriot missiles. The largest manufacturer, Lockheed, makes about 600 per year.
The shortage is partly due to the US war against Iran. In a few days, America and its allies fired more Patriots than Ukraine has received since 2022: 800 versus 600.
Sheikh: "The United States is going through its equipment like crazy."
A bright spot for Ukraine: French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday that his country will quickly send extra air defense ammunition and missiles to Ukraine. Ukraine would already receive new Italian-French missile systems. That delivery was only scheduled for next spring, which may now be brought forward.
"Hopefully that helps a bit," says Sheikh. "But the underlying problem remains. There was already continuous uncertainty about the willingness of American President Donald Trump to help allies. But now the question is: does the American military even still have the equipment to intervene credibly internationally?"
Weakness of the West
For a long time, Trump's position was that the US should not get involved in new wars. Sheikh: "The American security strategy said last year: we must focus on our own region, the Western Hemisphere, and on China, instead of on all kinds of other interventions."
"But ironically, you now see exactly the problem arise that that strategy warned about. Because of the war with Iran, the American military has less capacity to help allies. Not only Ukraine, but also elsewhere in the world."
Russia, China and Iran "smell the weakness of the West," says Sheikh. "Iran knows: the Americans want to leave here, so we certainly will not make a deal now. That means American weapons will continue to go to the war in Iran for the time being, so Europe, Ukraine, but also Taiwan and South Korea have to count their losses."
Sheikh expects more military provocations by Western rivals in the near future. These have an effect, even if the direct damage is limited. "If Russia does something and the Americans do not intervene, then a lesson is learned in other countries: if things really go wrong later, the Americans will not help us either. So let's look for less trouble with Russia and rather talk a bit more with them."
Hard years ahead for Ukraine
Europe certainly cannot fill the gap militarily left by the US in the next five years, Sheikh expects. "If Russia wants something, it must actually do it in the coming years. For Russia, the cards are bad after that. The population is shrinking, the economy is not doing well either, the country actually does not innovate. That is why Russia is now more aggressive."
So Ukraine is likely to face hard years. The country therefore wants to produce Patriots itself. Recently, Trump said he wanted to grant a license for that. But shortly afterwards he withdrew it again. "It is difficult to just give away this kind of technology," he said.
According to missile expert Cancian, it would also take years to set up a new Patriot factory. Moreover, America would be afraid that Ukraine might become a competitor in the defense market in the future. "If you add all that up, there are many obstacles to domestic Patriot production. Personally, I don't think that will ever happen."