Canadian Prime Minister Carney addressed voters in the province of Alberta one last time yesterday during a pro-Canada campaign event. On Monday, they will go to the polls to vote on a separation from Canada. Carney's message to the electorate was clear: vote against separation.
"This is not a game. This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of uncertainty and missed opportunities for the people of Alberta and the rest of Canada," said Carney. He pointed out to his audience that it is an open secret that U.S. President Trump would very much like to annex Canada as the 51st state.
'They are trying to break us'
A vote for an independent Alberta would play into the hands of Trump, who is conducting a trade war with Canada, reasoned Carney. "Some outside our borders are trying to break us so they can get us under their control." According to Carney, this must "never" happen.
Precisely because much is at stake for Canada, the prime minister launched a pro-Canada offensive to Edmonton, the capital of Alberta, where he grew up. Although Monday's referendum does not yet provide a definitive outcome. If a majority says 'no' to the question of whether Alberta should remain part of Canada, another referendum will be held in 2027. Only then will the decision be binding.
As far as Carney is concerned, it will not come to that. As prime minister, he wants to prevent Canada from breaking apart, while Trump openly speculates about annexing the country. In recent years, Carney has explicitly tried to strengthen ties with Alberta, after relations under his predecessor Trudeau had come under serious pressure.
For many separatists, Trudeau was the face of what they saw as pointless climate policy that harmed Alberta's economic interests. Carney was therefore pleased that the federal government in Ottawa and the critical province of Alberta reached an agreement in 2025 on a more flexible energy policy for the large oil industry there and a new oil pipeline towards the west coast.
There are also major economic interests at play. Alberta is rich in oil, natural gas, and coal, among other things, and has a large agricultural sector. Alberta's oil reserves are among the largest in the world, making it by far the richest province in the country. Much oil and natural gas is exported to the U.S.
That is precisely what makes separation from the rest of the country attractive to separatists. Although only 5.1 million people live in the vast province, due to exports the province pays above-average taxes to the federal government in Ottawa. The criticism in Alberta has been for years that it sees little return from these payments.
The reasoning of supporters of a separate state is therefore simple: with separation, no one in Alberta will have money worries anymore. In times of inflation, high fuel prices, and a difficult housing market, that is an attractive prospect for many.
Additionally, the population of the agricultural province has traditionally had a fondness for the U.S. Canadian media reported earlier this year that close ties exist between supporters of the split and the Trump administration and its MAGA movement. During the Forever Canadian event where Carney spoke, thousands of independence supporters demonstrated outside.
They expressed their dissatisfaction with Carney, who was born in Alberta. Banners were held up with texts such as: "Say no to Carney's new world order." A supporter told local media earlier that he fears Carney, as retaliation for the trade war with the U.S., will impose extra taxes on oil exports.
Shoulder to shoulder
Whether it will actually come to an independent Alberta is very much in question. Polls consistently show that the vast majority of voters in Alberta want the province to remain part of Canada. Only 30 percent of the electorate would support the separatists.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta, is not one of them. Although she and Carney sometimes have a tense relationship, she said during the pro-Canada campaign event: "For the first time in a long time, Alberta and Canada stand shoulder to shoulder."