In the Gulf region, almost no one seems to doubt anymore that a new war with Iran is coming. The main question is when. While the Americans are rapidly moving even more military equipment to the Gulf, the Gulf states are preparing for new drone and missile attacks from Iran and Yemen. Increasingly, less reliance is placed on security guarantees from the US.
In Doha, passing fighter jets kept residents awake last night, and tension is palpable in other places as well. The Saudi state oil company Aramco has sent employees at its headquarters in Dhahran home to work remotely. In the capital Riyadh, the iconic Kingdom Centre skyscraper has been evacuated for several days, and children are receiving lessons at home, out of fear of attacks by the Houthis.
These are measures that show how much the threat of war is affecting daily life and the economy in the Gulf.
Diplomats depart
Meanwhile, American diplomats have been ordered to leave Saudi Arabia with their families. The same applies, according to news agency AFP, to American family members and embassy staff in Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
Iran is also preparing for a new war. Iran has warned that in the event of new American attacks, it will strike back hard, not only against Israel and American bases but also against oil installations in the Gulf states.
President Trump denies that Washington is still negotiating with Tehran and says cryptically that an outcome will come fairly soon. Whether he means military action remains unclear. But in the region, those words were interpreted that way.
American Iran expert Vali Nasr, affiliated with Johns Hopkins University, says that almost everything indicates that Washington is heading toward another war. According to him, heavier American and Israeli attacks can cause enormous damage without definitively disabling Iran. He fears a prolonged disruption of the region, with all the consequences that entails for the global economy.
New alliances
The crisis exposes a fundamental problem. For decades, the Gulf states relied on the American security umbrella. They hosted American bases and bought billions worth of American weapons.
Those same bases now make them targets of Iranian retaliatory actions. Persistent warnings from Gulf leaders find little response in Washington, and previous attacks have shown that even advanced American air defense does not provide complete protection. Therefore, the Gulf states are increasingly seeking new security partners.
This week, Qatar signed the so-called Badr agreement with Turkey, Pakistan, and Indonesia, intended to jointly develop weapons systems and share military technology.
According to Qatari Defense Minister Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the agreement should combine the military capabilities of the participating countries. Other countries may join later.
Changing relations
According to Osama bin Javaid, analyst and reporter for news channel Al Jazeera, the agreement is an important step in the changing relations in the Middle East. "This will be a historic agreement that will be part of the changing security architecture of the region," says Bin Javaid.
He says the changing nature of warfare also plays a role. Cheap drones can cause billions in damage, while intercepting them with Western missiles can cost millions. By developing and producing weapons systems themselves, the countries hope to become less dependent on foreign suppliers.
The Badr agreement aligns with the previously signed Mecca pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, in which the countries agreed to support each other in the event of an attack, NATO-style.
That does not mean the Gulf states are turning their backs completely on the US. The ties are too deep and important for that. It is more about spreading risks, where dependence on a single protector is increasingly seen as a potential danger.
While new alliances are taking shape, countries are preparing for a war they do not want themselves but whose consequences they again threaten to bear.