A setback for asylum minister Bart van den Brink: his new asylum policy for Syrian refugees is "insufficiently substantiated," the Council of State ruled today.
After the fall of the violent Assad regime in 2024, the then Dutch cabinet stated that many Syrians could return. The country would be much safer. But the highest administrative court in our country finds that this claim needs better support.
How will things proceed now with Syrian refugees and our asylum policy? The main questions summarized.
What exactly does the Council of State rule?
The ruling was made in a lawsuit filed by a man from Syria. He applied for asylum in the Netherlands in 2023 after being tortured and imprisoned by the Assad regime in 2014 due to participation in a demonstration. The Minister of Asylum rejected his application, referring to the new 'country policy' which states that Syria has become safer.
But according to the Council of State, the minister wrongly assumed in this policy that after the fall of this regime "a completely new situation" arises. The humanitarian consequences of the years-long civil war should be taken into account.
What does the ruling mean for Van den Brink's asylum policy?
The new policy is not immediately discarded. The Council of State emphasizes that "with this ruling it does not give its own judgment on the general security situation in Syria." "It is the Minister of Asylum and Migration who must now reassess this," the Council of State reports.
University lecturer in migration law Mark Klaassen foresees two options. The first: the minister can adjust his country policy again. "Although the war is over and there is a new ruler, it is still unsafe there. The handling of that insecurity must be better substantiated by the minister."
If the minister does not want to adjust the policy, Klaassen says he can choose the second option: better motivate that not everyone from Syria needs protection.
What does the ruling mean for Syrians applying for asylum in the Netherlands?
Currently, 20,500 Syrians are in the asylum procedure and about one third of all people in asylum seekers' centers come from Syria. The Immigration and Naturalisation Service (IND) told Nieuwsuur that this year only five percent of Syrian asylum applications were granted.
What the ruling means for them depends on their residence status. For now, nothing changes for Syrians who already have a residence permit. But for people still waiting for a decision or appealing a decision, the ruling can have crucial consequences.
The Council of State rules that the IND must henceforth consider the humanitarian circumstances in the asylum seeker's country — even if the violent regime has fallen. Making that assessment may lead to longer waiting times in the asylum process, fears asylum lawyer Wil Eikelboom. "That is why it is unfortunate that this has only now been realized by the IND."
That uncertainty can disadvantage Syrians in the Netherlands, says Bart Lauret of Refugee Work. "Many Syrians waiting for a decision have already lived in the Netherlands for a long time. They work, follow education, do volunteer work, speak the language and have built a social network. Their children go to school in the Netherlands and grow up here."
Eikelboom concludes: "I do not exclude that more Syrians will now have to be admitted."
What is the situation now in Syria?
After Assad's fall, the Netherlands classified Syria as a country with a "lower level of arbitrary violence." But Lauret thinks this paints too positive a picture of Syria: "The country is half in ruins: in thirteen years of war the infrastructure is completely destroyed."
There are also major concerns about education, healthcare and facilities, and many Syrian people residing in the Netherlands, according to Lauret, "no longer have a place to return to." Houses have been destroyed and some have no family left to rely on.
Asylum lawyer Eikelboom sees this too: "That Assad is gone does not mean the consequences of the civil war are gone."
How are other European countries dealing with this?
"The question of whether Syria is safe is a question that plays in all European countries," says Klaassen. Germany and Belgium, for example, have long been working on stricter return policies for Syrians.
German Chancellor Merz said, for example, that eighty percent of Syrians currently living in Germany should return to Syria within three years. The new Syrian president al-Sharaa also says he is open to this.
What is striking according to Klaassen, however, is that an assessment of safety is not a political matter. "That determination is not up to politics, it is administrative. When politics interferes, you get this."