In Abu Dhabi, envoys from the US, Russia, and Ukraine will meet tomorrow to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine. European representatives have also traveled there. It is not yet certain whether they will be present at the negotiation table.
The negotiations are led by American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and represent the fourth round of talks under US leadership. Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Kushner aim to reach agreements on de-escalation and security guarantees for after the war. According to Witkoff, the ultimate goal is "a comprehensive, sustainable peace agreement."
Europe wants to have a say
Only this morning did Europe announce it would also travel to Abu Dhabi. There are concerns that the European voice is not being heard enough, while the outcome of the talks could have major consequences for the security and future of the continent.
Last week, the US said that a 'new European security structure' might be discussed as part of an arrangement to end the war. This caused unrest in European capitals. In haste, a group was formed to represent European and Ukrainian interests. It includes representatives from the EU, NATO, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
It is still unclear what exact role the delegation will have. They may only be involved peripherally in the talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia. Direct participation is not excluded. Europe has not been directly involved in the talks since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russia wants to do business
From Russia's perspective, the talks in Abu Dhabi will not be limited to the situation in Ukraine. According to Russian media, the composition of the Russian delegation shows that Moscow also wants to discuss other international matters with the Americans.
Regarding the talks about Ukraine, the Kremlin's stance is predictable: Russia categorically rejects a ceasefire and says fighting will continue even during negotiations. Ukraine must accept 'the situation on the ground' and evacuate the entire Donbas. Moscow also demands guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.
If Ukraine does not agree, Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian cities will continue unabated and with full intensity. "Russia's strategy is aimed at the economic and humanitarian exhaustion of Ukraine, leaving the regime in Kyiv no choice but to accept Russian conditions for a ceasefire," said Russian political commentator and TV presenter Dmitry Suslov to the NOS team in Moscow.
Ukraine expects no breakthrough
In Ukraine, it is also not expected that the new round will lead to a breakthrough. There is little indication that President Putin seriously wants to engage in dialogue, they believe in Kyiv. This is evident from the delegation Moscow is sending. Meanwhile, airstrikes on Ukrainian cities continue day and night, claiming more civilian lives.
A bright spot was the recent ceasefire around Oleshky and the evacuations of civilians from the town. It showed that the two countries can make agreements and that if Russia stops fighting, the war can stop. Ukrainians long for that, but not at any price. They are convinced that Russia still wants to subjugate all of Ukraine.
There are also concerns that the US will again increase pressure to give up the non-occupied part of the Donbas, which Ukraine does not want.
The hope is that progress can be made on specific issues, for example with the exchange of prisoners of war or an agreement on the safety of commercial shipping in the Black Sea. Kyiv continues to seek a way out of this war but wants to prevent a ceasefire from being merely a prelude to another Russian invasion.
Talks weigh heavily on Trump
For President Trump, the talks weigh heavily after the defeat in last week's midterm elections. From January, he will have less room to maneuver. A Democratic majority in Congress could, for example, push for stricter sanctions or more support for Ukraine.
Additionally, Trump wants to boast about results during his meeting with Chinese President Xi later this month in Shenzhen. That could become a trilateral meeting with Putin also joining.
American analysts expect little from the talks in Abu Dhabi. The Institute for the Study of War notes that Russia is sending a delegation with officials who have previously stalled negotiations. "This indicates that the Kremlin is not interested in negotiations in good faith."
Also, John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine, writes that expectations "must be very modest."
The previous round under US leadership took place in February in Geneva and yielded little. Last month, negotiator Witkoff revived the talks during a visit to Putin. Shortly before that, the US had suspended sanctions on the sale of Russian diesel.