Today marks the deadline the US set for itself to withdraw troops from the country. The Trump administration is not publicizing it, but if all goes well, after 23 years all American troops have left Iraq. It is then the first time since the start of the Iraq war that there are no American soldiers in Iraq.
Iraq itself is celebrating this as a holiday: the government calls September 30 'Sovereignty Day'. According to the government of Prime Minister Al-Zaidi, the Iraqi army is ready to protect the country itself. Yet Iraq now faces a number of challenges, such as the Iran-backed militias active in the country.
At the height of the Iraq war, there were about 170,000 American soldiers in Iraq. The Americans withdrew in 2011, but in 2014 a new military operation was started: 'Inherent Resolve'. Of the approximately 5,200 Americans who were there for that, only a few hundred remained.
What was operation 'Inherent Resolve'?
'Operation Inherent Resolve' was the name of the American military operation against the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. From 2014, the Americans helped local parties in the fight against IS, which tried to establish a caliphate in these countries. At that time, IS controlled a third of Iraq.
This operation changed character over the years. After 2017, IS had almost no territory left in Syria and Iraq, and focused more on terrorist attacks by local cells. The American soldiers were then mainly deployed to train the Iraqi army. In September 2024, President Biden decided that the mission would end on September 30, 2026.
Several militias supported by Iran are active in Iraq. As part of the deal to let America leave, these militias must be disarmed. Some groups cooperate, but hardliners like Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba refuse to give up their weapons.
The Iraqi government has asked the US for an extension until summer 2027. They have received it, but now Iraq must control the militias without American support.
Threat from Iran
The American government pays little attention to leaving Iraq. That is remarkable, because it was one of Trump's campaign promises to stop the so-called 'endless wars' in the Middle East. Or, as he himself said, "we cannot keep spending billions to protect people who don't even like us."
But meanwhile Trump started his own war in the Middle East. The two bases the US still had in Iraq were regularly targeted by Iranian air attacks in recent months. The threat that Iran or the pro-Iranian militias could hit the Americans at these bases is removed by the departure.
Allies in trouble
One ally of the US is left behind because of this: the Kurds in northern Iraq. Since the start of the war, Iraqi Kurdistan has been attacked more than a thousand times. Many Iranian dissidents who want to fight the Iranian regime live in the area.
The US previously worked closely with Kurdish fighting groups, including financial support. There is now fear among the Kurds that this support will disappear, as happened earlier in Syria. There, the Kurdish SDF made a deal with the Syrian government, causing them to lose autonomy in the region.