Unstable rock formation threatens Swiss village, but a Nepal scenario is not feared
An unstable rock formation threatens to bury the idyllic Swiss mountain village of Kandersteg under millions of cubic meters of rocks and ice. Due to global warming, the permafrost, which acts as the cement holding the mountains together, is thawing. This allows water to enter between the rocks, causing parts to shift.
Yet this frightening prospect does not make the residents particularly nervous. It is concerning, but they are not worried.
From Kandersteg, the threatened mountain peak, the Spitze Stei, is clearly visible. The enormous rock mass casts a shadow over the village with 1,300 inhabitants and many more tourists. One day, that entire load will come down, that is certain. But how fast and with how many rocks and ice at once is still the question.
"We live in the mountains and with nature. Something can always happen. But there is no mountain in Switzerland that is monitored as well as the Spitze Stei," says a resident. "We have all the information," says another. "If something happens, we know what to do."
They still have the recent disaster in Nepal fresh in their minds and have certainly not forgotten how a glacier collapse last year destroyed the nearby village of Blatten. But the situation in Kandersteg should not be portrayed too dramatically, emphasizes hotel owner Casimir Platzer of the Spitze Stei interest group. Almost everyone agrees: the authorities and local scientists have this well under control.
That indeed seems to be the case. "At the moment, small packages are coming down," says geologist Cornelia Brönnimann from the canton of Bern. "But we expect that in the future there will be larger packages."
She and her colleagues have been closely monitoring the process since 2018 and estimate the risk that the entire formation will come down on the village at once as very small.
Nepal scenario
"We still have to see how Kandersteg turns out. Science does not expect a worst-case scenario, but they have made the calculations," says Nepalese natural disaster expert Chandani Bhandari from the University of Geneva. "If that scenario occurs, it would be a truly enormous disaster, even bigger than in Blatten."
In Blatten, about 9 million cubic meters of stones and ice came down. In Kandersteg, it would be even 15 to 20 million cubic meters, but compared to Blatten, it is happening relatively slowly here. The population is continuously updated by the municipality so that everyone knows what can happen and what to do in case of an evacuation. "That is the way to do it."
The destruction in Blatten last year was immense:
"The conditions in the mountains are changing very dramatically," emphasizes glaciologist Mylène Jacquemart from ETH Zurich. The effect of climate change, driven by human CO2 emissions, is very large in the mountains. "How we see the ice disappear, the permafrost thaw; that does change the dangers that exist. The art now is to monitor that well and keep track of how everything changes."
Still, all the scientists interviewed call a Nepal scenario on an Alpine scale very unlikely in Kandersteg, precisely because of this good monitoring. Geologist Brönnimann: "The peak is so well guarded. We assume that we see events early enough and that we have at least two days to warn the population."
A disaster in which thousands of people die thus seems to be prevented in the Alps. There are blind spots, but with satellites and other measuring equipment, the Swiss can monitor huge areas quite well.
'Ideal conditions'
Compared to her home country, Switzerland has ideal conditions, says Nepalese natural disaster expert Bhandari. "Switzerland is much more developed than our country. There are virtually no financial or technical limitations."
Nepal, a country of thousands of mountain lakes and even more unstable rock formations, often does not have a clear idea where the danger lies. Bhandari: "And even if we know, people build along, for example, rivers with flood risks. Even with the right knowledge, people can be very distrustful of the government advising them not to do something."
Kandersteg does not suffer from that, at least. Hotelier Casimir Platzer, who critically follows the municipality in the Spitze Stei dossier with his interest group, emphasizes his confidence in the measurements and the local approach. "The interim results presented to us at the end of June are very promising. They indicate that the risk situation in various places is more favorable than previously assumed."