The leaders of the EU countries are meeting today in Brussels to discuss a new European budget, the high energy prices, and new financial support for Ukraine. The discussion is under pressure from upcoming elections in four of the five largest EU countries, which could significantly disrupt relations within the EU next year.
The Spaniards (2026), French, Poles, and Italians (2027) will go to the polls between now and the end of 2027. Especially the French presidential elections in April could leave a strong mark on the negotiations about the European budget for the coming seven years. In addition, they may have consequences for the financial support to Ukraine.
Campaign in Brussels
Leading the French polls is the radical right-wing party Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen. Le Pen advocates that France should contribute billions less to the European Union.
Moreover, she sees no room for financial support to Ukraine. Ukraine is expected to face a shortfall of tens of billions of euros next year to cover military and societal costs, but the money is needed first in France, according to Le Pen, because her country is struggling with a huge national debt.
She makes Ukraine and the negotiations about the European budget part of her election campaign. For that reason, she appeared yesterday on the eve of the summit with EU leaders for a press conference in a hotel in the center of Brussels. Her message to the European journalists: the EU could look very different in a year. With much more influence from parties that prefer to significantly limit the power of the EU.
Difficult negotiation
Le Pen hopes that her Spanish ally, the radical right-wing Vox, will secure a place in a new Spanish government. Vox is currently third in the polls. Le Pen's party colleague, Jordan Bardella, visited Santiago Abascal, the parliamentary leader of Vox in Spain, this week to express his support.
The French believe that a good result for Vox in November could set the tone for the rest of the election year. Besides the votes in Spain, France, Italy, and Poland, there are also elections in, among others, Estonia, Finland, and Greece.
With her visit to the Belgian capital, Le Pen literally brings the French elections to Brussels. Although she, as a presidential candidate, is not allowed to attend the summit for EU leaders, they will certainly feel her presence. Especially during the discussion about a new budget for 2028 through 2034.
Early deadline
The heads of government and state of the 27 EU countries hope today to come somewhat closer to an agreement on how much money they want to spend in the coming years and on what. So far, that discussion is proceeding extremely slowly.
That is not unusual. Every seven years, the countries that pay more money to the EU than they receive, such as Germany and the Netherlands, mainly want to reduce costs. Opposed to them is a large group of countries that would like to see a more generous European budget. This often leads to negotiations that continue until the very last moment, because all countries must ultimately agree.
But this year, the president of the European Council Antonio Costa, the man who must steer the consultations between the European leaders, aims for an agreement in 2026, a year before the budget must start in 2028. Costa hopes to prevent all the elections next year, especially the French one, from completely jeopardizing the negotiations.
'Democratic scandal'
That early deadline seems too ambitious. So far, the countries are not getting closer to an agreement. Moreover, not everyone is in a hurry. "We will not sign an agreement that is not favorable, just to meet the deadline," said Italian Prime Minister Meloni yesterday.
Meanwhile, Le Pen is trying to increase the pressure on the current French president Macron not to conclude an agreement before his departure. According to her, that would be a 'democratic scandal,' so close to the elections.
This puts Macron in a difficult position in his last months as president: trying in the coming months to reach an agreement with his 26 colleagues with the risk that such a compromise plays into the hands of political opponents. Or waiting, with the possible consequence that his successor torpedoes the budget negotiations.