The relationship between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and American President Donald Trump has reached a new low. Zelensky feels betrayed by Trump's diesel deal with Russia. Trump states that it is time for a new Ukrainian president.
"It is the lowest point since that disastrous meeting in the White House a year and a half ago," says Bob Deen, Ukraine expert and director of the Clingendael Institute. How could the bomb explode again?
Since Trump's re-election, Zelensky has, according to Deen, been balancing on a thin line between defending Ukrainian interests and keeping the American president on board. That balancing act has now failed.
Ukrainian troops and civilians are paying the price: the army was partly cut off from the Starlink satellite network this week and the US reportedly did not share intelligence, resulting in the population not being warned about missile attacks.
What preceded this break?
Last week, to everyone's surprise, Trump announced that he had concluded a diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. With this deal, the American president hopes that the diesel price in the US will go down. High fuel prices are an important theme in the upcoming congressional elections.
Trump thanked Russian President Putin for the deal and then again called for elections in Ukraine. "I suggest that Ukraine choose a new leader who can make a deal," said Trump. He added that Putin is willing to make a deal.
Zelensky did not hide his anger about the diesel deal and Trump's call for elections. "Putin is the great evil of our time. How can Trump be his friend?" Zelensky asked in an interview with the Financial Times. He also said that it is up to Ukrainians to choose a new leader, not Trump.
Starlink shut down
That the Ukrainian army was only able to use Starlink to a limited extent this week was, according to Zelensky, no coincidence. "It was not a technical problem, it happened deliberately."
Defense expert Patrick Bolder finds it very worrying that this crucial connection for Ukraine can be stopped with the push of a button. Especially because there is no comparable alternative worldwide. "Starlink antennas are used for small attack drones, for directing artillery, and for communication between units."
Discover here why Starlink is so important for Ukraine:
Starlink owner Elon Musk says that Starshield, the military branch of Starlink, falls under the US Department of Defense and that he therefore does not have the final say over the use of Starshield. "Trump is the commander-in-chief."
Bolder questions Musk's claim but finds it undesirable in any case that control over this important system lies in American hands. "Ukraine is thus dependent on the whims of the American president for the use of Starlink."
Psychology and emotion
Meanwhile, the Starlink connection in Ukraine has been restored, but the trust between Trump and Zelensky is far from restored. Analyst Deen attributes their fragile relationship to the completely different styles of the men. "Trump mainly thinks of himself and the midterm elections in America. He is doing poorly in the polls and wants to blame someone. He chooses Zelensky."
Zelensky, who by now should know how Trump deals with criticism, according to Deen still cannot help but say what he thinks. "He says exactly the things that annoy Trump. And even though Zelensky's words are justified, he could have expected this counterreaction. And on the battlefield, they notice the consequences."
Yet behind Zelensky's stubbornness is also a strategy, says Deen. "Ukrainians are fighting not only for their security but also for their dignity. That is a word Zelensky uses a lot and that is very important in Ukraine."
But in talks with Trump and his negotiators, you do not get far with that principle, says Deen. "Trump, Witkoff, and Kushner are looking for a deal where everyone gets rich. They have no eye for the psychology and emotion that are so important to Ukraine in this war. As long as those worldviews clash, no proposals will come from the US that align with what is just for the Ukrainians."