Lithuania and Poland are working on plans for mass evacuations in case a war with Russia breaks out. In that scenario, the countries anticipate that one million citizens from the Baltic states will want to flee via the Suwalki corridor.
This corridor is a narrow land connection between Poland and Lithuania. It is seen as the most vulnerable point of NATO territory.
The announcement of the plans coincides with a large mobilization exercise taking place these weeks in Lithuania. Not only the military, but the entire society must know what to do if war breaks out, is the idea.
What if Russia attacks?
How does NATO defeat Russia if that country attacks the military alliance? General Alexus Grynkewich, the military commander of the alliance, will give the answer this afternoon at a security summit in Warsaw.
The speech can be followed live from 1:00 PM via the NOS app and NOS.nl. NOS correspondents Kysia Hekster (NATO) and Christiaan Paauwe (Central and Eastern Europe) explain in the stream what makes the speech so special.
"Do you have a place to stay?" asks a relief worker. On her phone, she notes the details of Vidmantas (61), who sits opposite her in the white reception tent. "No, I have nowhere to go," answers the 'refugee'.
On the green lawn of the hippodrome of Lazdijai, a Lithuanian town near the border with Poland, so-called displaced Lithuanians are being guided around. Vidmantas is one of the hundreds of citizens participating. He wants to know what happens in an "extreme situation," he says after being registered. "So you don't get confused when the time comes."
After registration, participants can receive psychological or medical help in other tents, or get something to eat. A large Lithuanian flag hangs from a crane above the 'refugee camp'. Further on, green tents with rows of camp beds are set up.
Weak points
The scenario is that the eastern border area of Lithuania is threatened to be invaded and a flow of refugees begins. Captain Darius Indrisonis of the fire brigade sounds almost enthusiastic when giving a tour. According to him, they can learn a lot from the exercise and see where the weak points are. For example, the registration was too slow and many people had to wait.
That Lithuania goes this far with preparations is indicative of how the threat on NATO's eastern flank is felt. The country has dealt with sabotage attacks and other incidents in recent years. A few weeks ago, a drone coming from Belarus was shot down over Lithuania.
Backpacks already packed
Kristupas (17) and Gabriele (19) receive a first aid demonstration in a tent. Due to all the siren tests, the drones flying in, and the military actions, the young couple notices that tension is increasing in Lithuania. "All together you feel that it is getting more serious," says Kristupas.
They have already made some preparations in case war breaks out, Gabriele says. For example, they have an evacuation plan and packed backpacks.
In recent weeks, European leaders and intelligence services have repeatedly warned that Russia is aiming for further escalation. For example, new barracks are being built on the Russian side of the border.
'Want to be prepared'
Does the Lithuanian government therefore expect that Moscow will not be deterred by NATO and could start a direct war? "We see no indication that we need to be ready next month or the month after," says Tomas Daukantas, the chancellor of the Lithuanian government, to NOS. "But we do want to be prepared. Then we have every confidence that we can handle it."
Still, for some the exercise is mainly an outing. A 56-year-old woman from the neighborhood watches with her two grandchildren as 'victims' receive first aid. She does not expect that such a refugee camp will ever be needed.
The 17-year-old Kristupas also does not assume the worst scenario. But the threat of war does influence his future plans. He is in the final year of high school and wants to study medicine in Kaunas, where his girlfriend Gabriele already studies. "You do ask yourself: which city would be safe? Should I also look abroad?"