After Trump's deal with Putin, not a drop of Russian diesel has arrived in the US
With much fanfare, Trump announced last month that Russia would supply diesel to the United States. In exchange for sanction relief, President Putin would send tankers full of diesel to America. However, public data shows that those ships never arrived.
The Agioi Fanendes had been en route since October 22 with about 300,000 barrels of diesel from the port city of Primorsk to New York. Arrival was scheduled for last week, but the tanker is now sailing back and forth a few hundred kilometers off the US coast.
This can be seen on the Marine Traffic website, where the journeys of cargo ships and tankers can be tracked. The Agioi Fanendes appears to be waiting until a buyer is found.
Fear
There is no enthusiasm in the US for Russian diesel. Potential buyers fear the legal and political consequences, international media report. Although the cargo is temporarily exempt from US sanctions, international punitive measures may still apply against the tankers or the ports from which they depart.
"Congress is watching," warned the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee recently on X. The Democrats feel strengthened by their victory over the Republicans in the midterm elections.
At least three other tankers with Russian diesel were on their way to the US but have recently changed course. The Talisman is now off the coast of the Egyptian port city of Alexandria. The Beast is near Mauritania and the Leruo has turned southward toward Brazil.
Production up
It is unclear whether Russia has delivered diesel to American companies via other ships. After the diesel deal between Trump and Putin was concluded, Russia at least increased the export of this fuel. According to the British newspaper Financial Times, it has even doubled.
In October, Russia shipped 271,000 barrels of diesel daily and the month before 135,000, the British newspaper states based on online trade data. The growth was mainly seen in deliveries to Brazil and Turkey.
The suspension of US sanctions against the Russian oil sector led to anger in Ukraine. But disbelief in Kyiv was even greater when Trump forced Ukrainian President Zelensky to temporarily stop attacks on the Russian energy sector.
Breather for Russia
This gave Putin a breather to repair damaged oil refineries and increase exports. The sale of gas, diesel, and oil forms a crucial source of income for the Russian war chest. The reported increase in diesel exports suggests that the Kremlin has benefited from the agreements with Trump.
It is unclear how long Ukraine suspended attacks on the Russian energy sector last month. In mid-October, there was anyway a three-day ceasefire. Later in October, The Wall Street Journal reported that behind the scenes another pause was in effect, again under heavy pressure from the US. This was later denied by Ukraine.
Ukraine back on the offensive
It is clear that airstrikes resumed at full strength at the end of October. Yesterday, the Ukrainian army said that at least five large oil refineries in Russia were bombed. Another was hit last night.
It will be impossible for Russia to maintain the increased diesel export. The damage to the oil sector is unclear, but Reuters recently reported that capacity in Russia has decreased by thirty percent since the end of October due to Ukrainian attacks. The news agency bases this on two anonymous industry sources.
Prices dropped
The chance seems small that Russian diesel will still reach the US soon. Yet the White House denies that the deal with Putin has failed. "This agreement was made to make diesel available to the world economy and to lower prices for Americans and the world, and that is exactly what happened," a spokesperson told the Financial Times.
Diesel prices have indeed fallen in both the US and Europe, but economists emphasize that Trump's diesel deal has had little or no influence on that. The amount of extra diesel on the world market is a drop in the ocean. The US transport sector alone consumes nearly 3 million barrels of diesel daily.
The European diesel price has fallen by 11 percent but is still 77 percent higher than before the US and Israel started their war against Iran, according to figures published today by the International Energy Agency.