High prices at the pump, concerns about low gas reserves, and political unrest. The Iran war caused an unprecedented disruption of the energy markets.
Partly due to that shock, the world will emit slightly less CO2 this year from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. This is reported by the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists.
The scientists do not expect a trend break but a short-lived dip. "A decrease in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging," says Pierre Friedlingstein, one of the involved researchers, "but a decrease partly caused by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution."
Blow to oil use
Especially oil use is decreasing. At the beginning of this year, growth was still expected, but emissions are now forecast to be 1.9 percent lower. Emissions from natural gas also declined, but only slightly.
"That is logical," says Jilles van den Beukel, energy expert at the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. The war was most disruptive for oil. "For gas, only LNG (liquefied natural gas) was affected. And that is only a limited part of the gas supply."
The Iran war did not lead to a single energy shock. The problems changed during the year, says Van den Beukel. Initially, there was mainly a shortage of crude oil because it could no longer leave the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Gulf states and the United States are increasingly able to get crude oil onto the world market.
In recent months, the crisis mainly affects oil products such as diesel. Ukraine damaged Russian refineries and oil products from the Middle East reach the world market less. The remaining refineries simply could not produce more diesel, kerosene, and gasoline.
"What also plays a role lately are high prices for tankers," says Van den Beukel. "There is a shortage of tankers because they have to sail increasingly longer routes."
Decline despite Trump
In the European Union, fossil emissions are expected to decrease by 1.5 percent. More surprising is that other blocs also see a decline. Although China remains by far the largest emitter due to the enormous amounts of coal it burns, emissions have hardly increased since 2024. This year, scientists predict a decrease of 0.9 percent.
After a short increase, US emissions are expected to decline by 1.3 percent. This is remarkable, since President Donald Trump scrapped almost all US climate policy and strongly focused on fossil fuels. But even Trump seems unable to stop the decline of coal in his country.
Emissions from burning coal did increase worldwide, as the only fossil fuel. Coal was hardly affected by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and was a 'refuge' for many countries.
Read here more about the unexpected record year of coal:
Solar panels and wind turbines also experience strong growth again in 2026. It is notable, however, that the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that despite the energy shock of the Iran war, less capacity will be added than last year. It is the first time in 21 years that the increase does not break a record.
The IEA mainly attributes this to a change in regulations in China. Still, it is about strong growth. In wealthy countries, the increase of renewable energy is steady, but the IEA no longer expects feverish growth.
It is very different in the coming years in Southeast Asia and Africa. The costs of especially solar panels have dropped so much that it is becoming increasingly attractive for people in emerging countries. They sometimes invest without governments making policies for this.
Pakistan is a good example. "One of our analysts was on vacation there," says Daan Walter, researcher at energy think tank Ember. "Next to the fish cart at the local market, there are simply solar panels. You take them home and put them on your roof with an instructional video from TikTok." A Bloomberg journalist noted that solar panels are becoming increasingly popular as wedding gifts in Nigeria.
Without the rise of renewable energy, the world would now be using 8 percent more fossil fuels. At the same time, the hunger for energy is enormous, especially in emerging countries. The researchers of the Global Carbon Project think that after the dip, fossil fuel use will increase again.
"Accelerated deployment of solar and wind energy, batteries, and electric vehicles reduces emissions in dozens of countries and clears growth of emissions in many more countries," says Glen Peters, one of the involved scientists. "But the changes are not yet sufficient to reach a peak in global emissions."