Germany is counting down to the last state elections of this year. After the landslide victory of the right-wing radical AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, it is now the turn of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In the latter state, the AfD seemed for a time to be comfortably the largest party, but that is suddenly no longer certain.
The SPD is currently making gains in the polls. Whereas the social democrats polled at 19 percent last year, they are now neck and neck with the AfD at around 35 percent. It is a remarkable comeback for the party that has governed the East German state for thirty years.
The trump card is Manuela Schwesig, the popular state premier. Voters affectionately call her 'Manu' or 'our woman'. She herself embraces the nickname 'Die Frau gegen Blau', the party color of the AfD. Schwesig presents herself as the only person who can defeat the AfD.
"It's up to you!" Schwesig says to hundreds of visitors at a so-called citizen dialogue, organized in a circus tent in Rostock. "The AfD can become the largest party. A vote for the SPD is the only way to prevent that! So that I can remain your premier."
Steadfast
If voters could directly choose a premier, more than half would vote for Schwesig according to voter research. That is why the campaign revolves entirely around her. Outside the circus tent stands a life-size board of Schwesig and car air fresheners shaped like her head are being handed out.
Schwesig emphasizes economic issues and stays away from AfD themes such as migration and identity. "We must make it clear that the AfD does not stand up for people with average and low incomes. They criticize our free childcare and want to get rid of the solidarity surcharge." That is a special tax for high earners.
Schwesig also regularly distances herself from the unpopular federal government, of which her own party is a part. A deliberate choice, she says when asked. "I stand for my state. I cooperate with Berlin on good ideas, but on issues like pensions and high gasoline prices, I clearly say what needs to change."
Supporters appreciate Schwesig's steadfast attitude, described as a mix of 'businesslike' and 'charming'. "She makes a convincing impression with what she says," says Klaus-Jürgen Buchholz from Rostock. Fellow citizen Maria Lichtemann calls her human and approachable.
The rest of Germany mainly knows Schwesig as the woman who advocated for the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to import Russian gas to Germany. She led the German-Russian Friendship Group and tried to circumvent American sanctions with a controversial foundation. Schwesig has acknowledged her mistakes and wants to leave this chapter behind. Voters seem to forgive her.
By Schwesig's side is always her spokesperson. The 25-year-old influencer Lilly Blaudszun was brought into the team to set up a sophisticated PR campaign with flashy videos, a bright red color, and short, understandable messages. Successfully: the SPD leader has five times as many Instagram followers as the AfD premier candidate, former radio presenter Leif-Erik Holm.
AfD Welcomes Two-Way Contest
Still, the AfD is also full of confidence. During Schwesig's citizen dialogue in Rostock, AfD candidates gathered in a village outside the city. Flyers and stickers are being distributed here. "We get almost only support here," says candidate Thomas de Jesus Fernandes. "It feels like 90 percent want to vote for us!"
No other state has as low a share of immigrants as Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Yet migration is also a theme here, says the AfD member. "In the past, you hardly saw headscarves here at all." He wants to prevent the state from trailing behind western Germany. "Already people dare not take public transport in the evening."
He is not afraid of Schwesig's comeback. "The two-way contest comes at the expense of other parties, which may now fail to reach the electoral threshold. That could allow us to govern alone."
Federal Chancellor
The SPD's success indeed comes at the expense of the centrist parties. The CDU even seems to be heading for its worst election result ever in a state. Yet Schwesig appears to show no mercy to the Christian Democrats. Within the local CDU, voices are now rising to cooperate with the AfD. A gift for Schwesig: CDU members who oppose the AfD should vote SPD.
Within the party, some are already dreaming of a Chancellor Schwesig. The state premier laughs off a question about national ambitions. "My goal is Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. You see how beautiful it is here."