"There is a significant shift to the right in your countries. That is a good thing." This is how American President Donald Trump addressed a group of Latin American leaders on Tuesday at a meeting of The Shield of the Americas in New York. At the same time, the UN General Assembly was also taking place there.
This cooperation of mainly (radical) right-wing governments was founded in March by Trump to dismantle drug cartels, but meanwhile the cooperation has gone beyond that. During the meeting, Trump spoke about energy, rare earth metals, and trade routes that must not fall into the hands of "hostile foreign powers," probably referring to China.
After the elections in Brazil next week, Trump could gain an important ally on the continent. But how pro-Trump are all those leaders really?
"About ten countries in Latin America are led by radical right-wing or very conservative presidents," says professor of Brazil studies Kees Konings. This includes Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Peru.
Trump mainly attributes this development to himself. "I have supported some of you and you have achieved great election victories," pointing to the recent wins of the far right in Colombia and the conservatives in Argentina.
But Francisco Monaldi, Latin America expert at Rice University, questions the size of Trump's role. "Actually, you see all of South America shifting right, except for a few countries, including Brazil, Uruguay, and Mexico. But I think that movement mainly takes place within the countries themselves, each country for its own reasons."
In many of the countries with recent elections, there was an anti-government sentiment due to years of moderate economic growth. Some countries also struggle with high crime rates. This made the call for a strong approach to crime louder.
According to Monaldi, the right-wing leaders are therefore not necessarily popular because of Trump himself. "On the contrary, cooperation with Trump could deter voters from voting right."
Venezuela ally?
The prime example of Trump's influence in South America is Venezuela. In January, the US captured Nicolás Maduro, the socialist old dictator. Since then, his vice president has led the country: Delcy Rodríguez.
Venezuela was for years an opponent of Trump. But Rodríguez brought about a change there, under pressure from Trump. This new friendship was expressed at the UN this week, where the two leaders spoke to each other for the first time since Maduro's capture. "Historic," Rodríguez called the conversation in which they talked about strengthening their relationship.
Appearances are deceiving, according to Monaldi. He believes Venezuela is mainly trying to "buy time" as long as Trump is president. Also, the large increase in Venezuelan oil production desired by Trump will take years and, according to Monaldi, will not be realized during his current term. "It is mainly a show," he says.
Even with Trump's most loyal ally, the right-populist Milei of Argentina, the question remains what the friendship with Trump really entails. "Substantively, they are actually quite far apart," says Monaldi. For example, where Trump imposes import tariffs, Milei is a great supporter of free trade.
Brazil next test
An important test for Trump's influence in South America are the upcoming Brazilian elections. Presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro will face the incumbent leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on October 4. Flávio is the son of the radical right former president Jair Bolsonaro, convicted for a coup.
According to the most recent poll, they are neck and neck. "The elections in Brazil are decisive for the weight of the right in South America," says Konings. "The Bolsonaro family is willing to fully submit to Trump."
President Lula used the UN General Assembly for a clear message. "Brazil is nobody's backyard," he said, referring to the 'Monroe Doctrine,' in which the US considers Latin America as an area within its own sphere of influence.
Monaldi: "If Bolsonaro wins, only Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum remains to oppose Trump."
'Hostile foreign powers'
But even countries seeking political rapprochement with Trump can only do so to a limited extent, according to experts. China is one of the most important trading partners for several large South American countries.
In 2024, China was the main destination of Brazilian exports. Especially soy, iron ore, and oil are exported on a large scale.
Monaldi sees a limit to Trump's possibilities in Latin America in this. "I think most countries are not so much going along with Trump, but rather trying to survive his term."