Even before the next election defeat is a fact, there is already open talk about the end of Friedrich Merz's chancellorship. According to German media, his party CDU/CSU is considering replacing Merz. His departure could take place as early as next week.
Sunday there are state elections in Berlin and the eastern German Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MV). After the halving in Saxony-Anhalt, further defeats for the CDU are expected. In MV the party is heading for its worst result ever in a state and the CDU even risks falling below the electoral threshold.
Then a Kanzlertausch, a replacement of Merz, could accelerate. On election night itself, the party leadership will meet at Merz's request. His fate is expected to be discussed there. A visit to the United Nations General Assembly next week has also been canceled.
Longer dissatisfaction
Merz has been in office for less than one and a half years. No chancellorship has ended so quickly before. Germany is known for long-serving leaders such as Adenauer (fourteen years), Kohl and Merkel (both sixteen years). The premature end of Merz's predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was even unprecedented.
The chancellor seems to want to stay. During a visit to Finland, Merz said that with the current tensions with Russia, stability is important. "I am trying to convince my colleagues, party and parliamentary group, that [what is happening here] here is much more important than some domestic political debates."
There has been dissatisfaction with Merz for some time. Party members criticize that he works with little tact and diplomacy, for example in the sudden replacement of ministers, forcing plans and breaking election promises. His communication is sharp and direct, constantly offending voter groups.
Popularity figures are historically low: 88 percent are dissatisfied with the chancellor. In polls, the CDU/CSU is now measured below 20 percent, far behind the AfD. The already lost state elections and the expected defeat in the upcoming vote seem to be the last straw.
Little support
In the current election campaign, local CDU members are distancing themselves from Merz. The vice chairman of the CDU in MV openly calls for his departure. The chancellor is even kept at a distance from the campaign. With him "no more elections can be won," says the CDU youth.
Only the closest confidants come to Merz's defense. The CDU state premiers again express their support today and emphasize above all the importance of unity in the party. This mainly goes along with calls for Merz to listen better to the voters.
Merz's authority is declining, which endangers stability within the governing coalition with the SPD. CSU leader Markus Söder partly blames the internal unrest on the Social Democrats, who are said to block reforms.
The influential Bundestag member Christian von Stetten (CDU) openly calls for the departure of the SPD Minister of Social Affairs, who is also vice chairman of that party. Thus, Merz's loss of power could also endanger the government.
Successor
Replacing Merz can actually only happen with his cooperation. Sources in the party tell Die Zeit that the CDU state premiers must force Merz to resign. According to the medium, this is already being prepared. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that this plan also has support from CDU members in the Bundestag.
Merz's successor should also come from among the state premiers. The most mentioned name is Hendrik Wüst, the 51-year-old premier of North Rhine-Westphalia. He is praised for what Merz lacks: solid governance without problems. The disadvantage is that he would have to leave his state, about half a year before state elections there.
Also in the picture is the Bavarian premier Söder, who has already made several attempts at the chancellorship. The veteran is widely known, not least for his jokes and antics, although he has deliberately presented himself more seriously in recent months. His disadvantage: he leads the sister party CSU and must win over the larger CDU.
The premiers would have to decide among themselves who it will be before Merz can be forced to resign. Wüst leans on the western states and the more social part of the party, Söder on Bavaria and the east, as well as the conservative wing. As a compromise, the relatively unknown premier of Hesse, Boris Rhein, could be an option.
It is questionable whether replacing Merz would end the unrest in the party. The problems in the country remain the same, as does the difficult cooperation with the SPD. Also, a successor would lead a government appointed by Merz. Replacing ministers again would lead to new unrest.
Merz has two options left: cooperate with his premature end or significantly restore trust in the party, which seems almost impossible. One thing seems certain: Merz will not go down in history as a stable statesman in the spirit of Merkel, Kohl or Adenauer.