Elections are being held today in the German states of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. These are not the largest regions, with a combined population of about five million. Yet the vote could have major consequences for national politics.
After the landslide victory of the radical-right AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, Chancellor Merz is under pressure, partly because the AfD's win came at the expense of his own CDU. For days there has been speculation about his resignation and preparations for his replacement within his party. At the end of the afternoon, the party leadership will meet to decide his fate.
In both states, polls indicate losses for the CDU. The situation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (MV), long the home state of CDU Chancellor Merkel, is the most critical. There the party is heading for its worst ever result in a state election. The Christian Democrats even risk falling below the electoral threshold.
The party is partly a victim of a two-way contest between the AfD and the SPD, but local CDU members also blame the expected defeat on dissatisfaction with Merz.
Berlin
In Berlin, the CDU currently provides the mayor, but he is stepping down after a series of lies about his handling of a major power outage. There is no clear favorite: four parties poll between 16 and 21 percent, with Die Linke narrowly in the lead. Even the AfD could become the largest party in the progressive capital, especially due to success in the suburbs.
Even if the CDU remains the largest in Berlin, a coalition between the three left-wing parties seems realistic. Then Merz's party would lose an important position again. If Die Linke becomes the largest, that party would win a state for the first time. Elif Eralp's party could benefit from the AfD's success earlier this month as the fiercest anti-AfD voice.
Merz has been kept out of the campaign by the local CDU branches. The Chancellor is not a vote-getter, quite the opposite. Especially in MV, the CDU actively distanced itself from their leader. This shows how Merz's continuation poses an existential threat to the party.
Party leadership meeting
Merz knows he is in trouble. The CDU party board is therefore convened at 5:00 p.m. in Berlin. Among them are the current eight CDU state premiers. On the election night in Saxony-Anhalt, he also invited the premiers, but only one showed up.
Now he wants to have control and project it. Reportedly, Merz will look his confidants in the eyes and ask for their trust. Stützen oder stürzen is the question: support or let fall. It is widely assumed that the powerful state premiers should urge Merz to resign.
That can only happen if the party leaders act unanimously. Presumably one of them will have to succeed Merz. Such a unique chancellor change must be broadly supported, not least by Merz himself. Ultimately, the Bundestag will have to agree, including coalition partner SPD and the Merz loyalists in the parliamentary group.
Half support
This week the premiers expressed their support for the Chancellor in a letter, without naming Merz. However, the text mainly emphasized the importance of stability. Cooperation with the AfD or the option of a minority government was also excluded, other rumors that surfaced this week.
The letter briefly silenced the discussion about Merz, but it was not a passionate declaration of support. As SPD vice-chair Schweitzer put it: "If I were a football coach and the board said they wanted to keep me like this, I would already be thinking about where my bag was."
Even if the party leadership expresses support tonight, Merz is not immediately saved. This summer the party also held on to the embattled parliamentary leader Spahn until outrage and resistance among members became too great. Merz has canceled a planned trip to the US as a precaution to be able to talk with his parliamentary group in the coming days.
Thus, Merz's fate hangs over these elections, which were actually supposed to be mainly about state politics. No one dares to say with certainty how it will end. "Measures arise in a certain situation and tonight a certain dynamic will emerge," an anonymous CDU state chairman described the chances of a coup to Die Welt.
The polling stations are open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. Immediately afterwards, an exit poll will follow in both states. The preliminary result will be announced during the night.