Love between Canada and Europe Blossoms, Even (Sort of) EU Membership Now an Option
Members of the European Parliament gave Mark Carney a loud round of applause this morning as he entered the political Brussels arena. Tomorrow, the Canadian Prime Minister will speak in the European Parliament and expectations are that he will once again declare his love for Europe.
In Brussels, serious talks are now underway about EU membership for the North American country. European Commission President Von der Leyen is also in favor, as became clear this morning during her annual speech. But the question is what such membership would look like and what it means for transatlantic geopolitical relations.
Now that the relationship between Canada and the United States is becoming increasingly fragile, Prime Minister Carney is strengthening ties with other power blocs such as China and Europe. Is EU membership a serious option? And what does Europe stand to gain?
The flirtation between Canada and Europe is not new. When Carney became Prime Minister last year, his first foreign trip was not to Washington but to Paris and London. Last January, he gave a striking speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The gist: the world order as we know it will not return and we must prepare for a new geopolitical reality.
That reality is that the relationship between Canada and the United States – traditionally loyal allies – has deteriorated enormously. Trump repeatedly said that Canada should belong to America as far as he is concerned. Meanwhile, he is waging a fierce trade war with his neighbor and last month renamed border lake Lake Ontario to 'Lake America.' Carney responds to all this with heavy import tariffs and does not shy away from taking a firm stance in negotiations with Trump.
If it is up to Von der Leyen, Canada will become an "associated" EU member. That means something like: optimal cooperation without Canada being a formal member. Von der Leyen wants to join forces in areas such as trade, defense, the Arctic region, AI, energy, and critical raw materials.
Von der Leyen's words have been received with cheers in Canada. Four out of five Canadians want closer ties with the EU, a Canadian research institute polled last week.
"It is really a crisis here," says Matthijs van Wijck. He previously worked as a political staffer for Carney's Liberal Party and still lives in Canada. "America's deep betrayal is the topic of the day here."
Many Canadians are feeling the consequences of the dispute with Trump: imports and exports back and forth have collapsed due to sky-high tariffs. "As a result, jobs are insecure and grocery prices – which were already high since corona – have now completely exploded."
'Unclear' type of membership
Back to Europe. The love for Canada is mutual and that will also be heard tomorrow in Prime Minister Carney's speech. But the big question is what such a possible associated EU membership means.
"That is completely unclear," says Amy Verdun, professor of European Politics at Leiden University. On the one hand, it can mainly be a symbolic label; on the other hand, it could also become a membership similar to the Norwegian model. That country is officially not an EU member but adopts almost all EU rules, is part of the Schengen Area, and has a trade agreement with the EU. "Adopting all kinds of European rules is difficult for Canada."
Verdun does see that Canada and the EU have been cooperating more intensively in recent years. For example, there is the CETA trade agreement and Canada participates in a European program that makes billion-euro investments in defense. Moreover, the country has many similarities with our continent, she says: besides sharing our norms and values, Canadians also share our worldview.
'Existential crisis' in Canada
(Informal) EU accession could also yield a lot for Europe, the professor thinks. "The country has many raw materials needed for batteries and the energy transition. Canada also possesses many fossil fuels such as oil and gas. And Von der Leyen mentions the Arctic region. A large part of that lies on Canadian territory."
Although the blossoming love between Canada and the EU has been ongoing for some time, Van Wijck did not expect Von der Leyen to already mention the word 'membership.' "It says something about the severity of the situation here. Such a quarrel with America is an existential crisis that we have never experienced before."
And Trump? Won't he get even angrier if his neighbor strengthens ties with the EU, which he was also very critical of earlier? Van Wijck shrugs about that: "We already have so many import tariffs and there is open speculation about annexing Canada. So what could the next step still be?"