For years, the topic was off-limits in Brussels: admitting new countries to the European Union. The last accession, that of Croatia, dates back to 2013. The fear is that new countries will mainly cost money. Moreover, there are concerns about the stability of newcomers. Will they continue to adhere to European rules once they are members?
But since the war in Ukraine and the re-election of Donald Trump, support for new members has grown. "A larger European Union gives us more political and economic weight in a world full of fierce competition on the global stage," says European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos.
The idea is that together you stand stronger. For example, the Ukrainian army has become the strongest in Europe due to the war, and EU countries can learn a lot from that. It must also be prevented that Russia or China gain more influence over countries in Europe.
Removing voting rights
The European Commission is therefore presenting a plan today for new rules for newcomers. The rules must ensure that entrants actually strengthen the EU and do not weaken it.
For example, the Commission wants extra rules to be able to punish new countries if they do not adhere to the EU's basic principles after their accession. If they violate these principles concerning, for example, democracy, the rule of law, or human rights, a new member can have its voting rights removed for a period of fifteen years.
Four direct candidates
Especially Montenegro, Albania, Moldova, and Ukraine are currently on track for EU membership. The small Montenegro (600,000 inhabitants) wants to become the 28th member of the EU in 2028 and is on schedule.
The proposal contains not only ideas to control new countries but also to keep a larger EU manageable. If more countries join, it becomes more difficult to reach agreements that all countries agree on. The Commission therefore advocates making decisions by majority vote more often. This majority must consist of 55 percent of the countries representing more than 65 percent of the EU population together.
Currently, support from all EU countries is needed for many important decisions. This regularly leads to difficult negotiations. A country can block a proposal alone in the interest of only that country, as Greece, Luxembourg, and France recently did with new sanctions against Russia.
It is up to the EU countries themselves to decide whether they want to take more decisions by majority. The question is whether there is enough support for this. On the one hand, it can make the EU more effective, especially with more members. On the other hand, countries can then exert less influence individually. Ironically, all countries must agree if they want to decide to take decisions by majority in the future.
Hungary
The new rules must prevent a new 'Hungary scenario.' That country joined the European Union in 2004. Under Prime Minister Orbán, who ruled from 2010 until this year, the rule of law subsequently deteriorated. The independent judiciary came under great pressure, EU funds were fraudulently used, and Hungary ignored numerous European rules.
The EU did take measures by freezing European subsidies for Hungary, but it failed to remove Hungary's voting rights. There was legislation for that, but all EU countries had to support it, and that did not happen. Poland, which also undermined the independent judiciary in the country, continued to support Hungary. The reverse was also true. And so nothing happened for years, to the great dissatisfaction of, among others, the Netherlands.
Trojan horse
The plans the Commission now proposes should make it easier to suspend the voting rights of future members during the first fifteen years of their membership. The Commission hopes to prevent bringing in a 'Trojan horse.' A country that at first glance seems a nice addition but causes major problems once inside the EU.
Next week, the leaders of the EU countries will discuss the new enlargement plans at a European summit. Enlargement is a politically sensitive topic. The Netherlands has always been cautious but does see merit in these plans.